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theluc
12-08-2009, 03:24 AM
hi to everyone in the lounge, new member and like all of you fantasy and 40k is a passion.

been several years in the hobby part and didnt play that much even if it been years in already collecting modelling and painting. Now thing have changed, playing more as my pals have operational armies and more time on their hands played a few games already and i dont think my lists are bad but i just keep losing with the curse of bad dice rolling, mostly rolling 1s when its not the time ! ive read many forums to try to help me out but now i call for help..so ill list down my inventory of black legion space marines and if with what i got is possible to eradicate or at least tone down my bad roll curse, i would be more than thankful

HQ
1 termi lord
1 sorcerer

ELITE
14 termi with 2X power fist. 1 lightning claws. 1 chain fist. 2 chaos glory icons
1 deady with twin linked lascannon

TROOPS
2 CSM squads with psword champ and lascannon
2 CSM squads with pfist champ and missile launcher
2 CSM squads with pfist champ and meltagun

5 rhino APC

FAST ATTACK
none

HEAVY SUPPORT
3 Obliterators
1 Defiler
4 land raiders ( plan to build 2 more )
1 pred with Hbolter sponsons and dozer blade
1 pred with Lascannon sponsons
( planning to build 3 vindicators )

LEFT OVERS
1 CSM with lightning Claws
2 CSM with heavy bolters
1 CSM with a Chaos Glory Icon
4 CSM

so here is my arsenal and we play 3100pts games main opposition is tyranids, marines, tau, IG and soon orks
so if you guys think are able to play around with what i got and do a winning list, id be greatful. plz note that investing more is not possible since i got other priorities thats why i scratch build most of my heavy support...thanks

mercer
12-08-2009, 05:50 AM
Well Daemon Princes are better than Lords, though if you take a daemon weapon on a Lord and keep rolling 1's I would drop it.

Terminators are always a good start.

Chaos Marines seem ok, but I'd drop the heavy weapons and give them two special weapons.

Heavy support are ok.

I would get a list sorted out and pop it in the army list section and take it from there.

Nikephoros
12-08-2009, 06:02 AM
There are a few ways to hedge yourself against bad luck:

1. Redundancy. If there is a job worth doing (i.e. anti-tank) bring mutilple ways to do it. Never rely on one (or 2) models to do any job. Make sure multiple units in your army are capable of doing it.

2. Overkill. Lets say you are debating whether to commit a second unit to an assault vs 30 ork boys. Mathhammer says your first squad should be able to kill them with average rolls. Send in the second unit. Doing that ensures the orks will die by eliminating bad luck. This is an old maxim of concentrating firepower, and its very applicable to 40k. Another example. You have 6 las cannons in your army and the opponent has 4 monstrous creatures. The smart thing to do is concentrate fire and kill one per turn rather than have each las cannon try to do a wound on each.

3. Do the math. Often times people think they have bad luck when they dont. "Oh man I rolled for saves and 6 terminators died!" Which sounds like bad luck until he tells you the dire avengers did 36 wounds, which is exactly what probability would expect to happen. If you do quick math hammer all game you'll see that chances are you roll about average, like everyone else.

weeble1000
12-08-2009, 07:40 AM
Hell, I'd just get a new set of dice. As a bonus, you can consign the old set to the depths of some closet gaol as punishment for their betrayal. Perhaps they'll learn their lesson in a couple of years.

Fizyx
12-08-2009, 07:57 AM
I'll agree that redundancy is extremely important to success, especially in the first few turns of a game.

Overkill is a tricky thing, though. I play fantasy more than 40k, so positioning and committment of forces is something I do in my sleep. In 40k you are not as constrained with movement, but the principles still stand: You need enough troops to overwhelm the opponent without leaving any holes in your defenses. This is not something that you can teach, but something you have to learn from countless hours of playing your army. You mentioned you were relatively new to the gameing side of the hobby; give yourself a few months and once you have a hundred games under your belt (it will come fast, trust me) see how bad your dice are rolling now :D

Lastly, just a few comments about probabilities. In this game, probabilities are a tricky fish. Yes, you can come up with statistical averages all day, but that fact is that multiple dice rolls that are based on the result of previous dice rolls have a very large deviation.

In probabilities, standard deviation is the value we give to a range of "very probable" outcomes. That is, it shows the variation from the average. If you start from the statistical average, one standard deviation encompasses 34.1% of the area under the probability curve in either direction. For the prurposes of advanced mathammer, 68.2% of the possible outcomes can be considered to be "likely." I actually like to error even more on the side of caution.

If you follow that logic, that means if you compute the probability distribution of whatever dice roll(s) you are making, those "bad rolls" are asually less than one standard deviation from the average. Do you need a graduate degree in mathematics to be a good 40k player? Obviously not (but it helps.) However, many of these mathematical principles veteran players already know through experience, which is probably the single biggest improvement you can see in your game.

Good luck!

theluc
12-08-2009, 09:02 AM
thanks for the thought Mercer, thing is that daemon prince are a kind of must.. i dont have the figure so i just dont play it but my lord is with termi and power weapon so the rolling one curse, he has nothing to do with it.

for the normal CSM i was thinking of replacing lascannons for flamers and meltas ( every one knows what a plasmagun does on a roll of 1 ) same with missile launchers but that is when i get the chance of getting a new box of troops ( which i dont think will be soon )

thanks of the thought of a list but keep in mind my group and i dont proxy and the theory of investment is clearly not possible so even if i like the time taken for a list which you might place a 35bucks figure i dont have will leave a hole in the list. but thanks ill check out what you might cook up with my inventory

thank to Nickephoros for the reply, as in rule 1 and 2 please look at my inventory previously posted and for the 3rd rule i do know that masses of dice rolls do help more than alot which is also rule no 2 but defending or attacking if my 8 twin linked lascannons just wont hit i call it bad luck.

hahaha weebles know what tried that now got like 3 set of dice, they are as traitors as my CSM, being so much blessed by chaos it me who will turn into a spawn

theluc
12-08-2009, 09:09 AM
2 squad 2 lascan

2 squad 2 missile launcher

14 termies

4 land raiders

2 pred

3 to come vindies

i think its redundant enuff no ? or is it that i need to repeat all squads same now in 5th

EmperorEternalXIX
12-08-2009, 11:52 AM
The problem is actually probably your dice, my friend.

You must find the elusive "square edged dice brick" ... the amount of 1's that roll on rounded edge dice has always seemed disproportionate to me. Just the other day I rolled nine 1's with a set of these rounded edger chessex crapolas. 9 1's. That is statistically impossible considering I was throwing 11 dice at the time.

With my set of square-edged dice, I have never rolled so catastrophically bad, and have become convinced that something is amiss. Unfortunately the square-edged dice are VERY difficult to find these days, and I have lost many of them, and so I've had to settle for these rounded ones for ease of use since I have multiple colors of them.

If I could find one or two good bricks of the square edged ones, I would throw every other die I ever owned in the trash.

Fizyx
12-08-2009, 12:07 PM
The odds of that are roughly 1 in 263000. Improbable? yes. Impossible? no!

In other news, I would melt those dice ASAP. Prefereably in sight of the rest of your dice. lol.

EmperorEternalXIX
12-08-2009, 12:53 PM
Chessex seems to get a real kick out of this crap, too. They have rounded edge dice, and then they have the custom dice, which are so round they are almost a frigging sphere. Idiotic considering we use them on tables covered in sand and terrain, mostly.

phoenyxx
12-08-2009, 02:27 PM
As others have already pointed out, you may not actually roll dice that poorly. You may be overestimating the chances of killing stuff with a particular unit.

I play CSM as well, and I often make the mistake of overestimating my units. For example, I commonly think one pie plate from a Defiler is going to massacre an entire unit. The reality is quite different though. The actual chances of that pie plate hitting is lower than I think it is. The chances of all of the hits scoring a wound is lower than I think it is. The chances of the target failing all of their saves is lower than I think it is. All of this combines so that I expect my one pie plate to annihilate the squad, but instead it kills 4 guys.

If I base my plans on these false expectations, I find myself getting seriously pwned. If I have realistic expectations though, and plan accordingly, then I find the outcome quite different. If I expect 2 Defilers firing at a squad to kill between 6 and 8 models in that squad, and make my plans based on that expectation, then my army is much more likely to perform to my expectations. Therefore, my plans are much more likely to succeed.

And for you mathhammer folks, those aren't exact numbers. They are just examples of what I'm talking about.

So that's one thing for you to think about. Here is another - if you really are that bad at rolling then you might want to think about playing a different army. I know that's not going to happen any time soon, but CSM are not kind to people that consistently roll poorly. Why do I say that? The best way to combat consistent poor rolling is by intentionally building your army with weapons that have a high rate of fire. Heavy 4 instead of Heavy 1 or 2. Avoid blast weapons because you have to rely on the scatter die to even hit. Choose weapons that shoot more often than other weapons.

Chaos does not have many of these, which is why CSM may not be a very good army for you. A friend of mine consistently rolls very poorly. He consistently rolls below average. His answer was to play Eldar, and he intentionally takes weapons with the highest possible rate of fire. Instead of choosing blast weapons or high strength, single shot weapons; he chooses whichever weapon has the highest rate of fire. This actually works very well for him.

Sometimes he has to maneuver a little more to get side armor or other little tricks, but all-in-all his army performs very well for him because he can rely on any given outcome and plan accordingly. If he is shooting my rhinos, then he pumps 8 Str 6 shots into it from 2 Wave Serpents. Even if he rolls very badly, it's a good chance he will get at least 1 glancing hit. He expects that glancing hit and plans accordingly. Then if he happens to roll less worse than he expects, the result is better than he expected. Basically he expects the worst possible roll in every case and has built his army specifically to combat that. With his sheer volume of fire, even the worst rolls tend to get the job accomplished.

You can do something similar with Chaos, but it does not work nearly as well as with certain other armies. For instance, you can use Dakka Preds instead of Defilers or Oblits. 1 TL autocannon (or las cannon) and 6 bolter shots is a lot of shooting. Something is going to hit. Dakka Preds and/or Land Raiders is probably your best option for Heavy Support options. The LR has slightly less over all shooting then a Predator, but everything on it is Twin Linked (which also minimizes the effect of bad rolling). You can also look at Havoc Squads with 4 of a particular heavy weapon.

I would avoid using blast weapons, such as those missile launchers on your CSM. I find them an excellent multi-purpose weapon, but if you rely on the scatter die to hit, and then roll badly on a consistent basis, your army is going to underperform on a consistent basis. Although this is one example of where a Havoc Squad might be nice. Four Missile Launchers on a Havoc Squad can cause some serious harm, and you have a decent chance of at least one of them landing on target.

Take 2 meltaguns on some of your CSM squads and then put a combi-melta on its Rhino. I actually don't like doing this myself, I'm partial to havoc launchers, but it gives you three melta shots when you really need it. Again, if you really do roll that badly, popping off 3 meltas instead of 1 or 2 should get the job done anyway.

I don't want to burst your bubble, but building 3 Vindis is probably a bad idea for you. If you really do roll that badly, then they are probably going to seriously underperform for you. You are going to miss alot if you can't rely on that scatter die to land a hit. Try to stick as many weapons with a high rate of fire in your army as possible, or try to favour twin linked weapons over non-twin linked weapons. Twin Linked weapons help mitigate poor rolling as well.

You might want to look at removing the PFs from your CSM as well. I normally really like putting PFs on my Aspiring Champs, but it would save you some points so that you can put more PFs on your Terminators. Here the thought is to load up on PFs and LCs on your Termies so that you are rolling more dice at once when hitting with them. Two or three PFs, plus 2 or 3 LCs, all in one Terminator squad is going to increase your chances of something hitting and causing a wound. Rather than making 1 bad roll on that single PF in the CSM squad and hitting nothing.

Hopefully by this point you get the idea. Try to build your army to mitigate bad rolling. Favour high rate of fire weapons over single-shot weapons, and more weapons in a single squad over that 1 dude with the weapon what must hit. Favour weapons that hit for sure if you roll 3+ over weapons that require a scatter die roll to hit.

The other thing to consider, and experiment with, is the thought that your dice do not like certain units. I like Obliterators, but I like Defilers more. I tend to put Defilers in my army, because I just think they are darn cool. However, I often overestimate what I can kill with a Defiler and I often roll poorly with them. On the other hand, I've watched a 3-man Oblit squad live through three entire rounds of fire from 1 pathfinder squad, 1 Fire Dragons Squad, 1 Guardian Squad, and the Wave Serpent carrying the Fire Dragons. The 3-man Oblit team only lost 1 guy after 3 rounds of all of those units firing at it, because I simply could not fail the cover save checks on the Oblit team. My dice love Oblits, and are very "meh" about my beloved Defilers. :(

Anyway, the point is to experiment with different units despite everything I said above. Maybe you do roll truly horrible, but your dice love Defilers and you always hit with them. Experimenting with different units can discover these "magical" combinations for you.

Steelbull
12-08-2009, 08:59 PM
Roll these before a round to confuse the dice gods!

Blank dice (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/B001AVEIO2/sr=1-75/qid=1260327352/ref=dp_image_text_0?ie=UTF8&n=165793011&s=toys-and-games&qid=1260327352&sr=1-75)

theluc
12-09-2009, 01:36 AM
hmm squard sided dice might well do the job as well as what phoenyxx pointed out still curious what lists you guys could do with my inventory to help me out

pacopaco
12-09-2009, 07:20 PM
I love Plasma Guns in my SM army but, as you guess it, I always get a 'get's hot' result from both guns more than once per game. that is marine lives is 50/50, but I just can't keep the gun from overheating.
My son on the other hand almost never ( i say almost, only because I have never seen it) scatters when deep striking his Tau Battle suits. those guys always hit the mark and I hate them.

theluc
12-10-2009, 01:23 AM
yeah plama are great but the get hot rule does hurt me bad

Majorcrash
12-10-2009, 09:16 AM
Firstly... your playing CSM who needs good dice roll! Try rolling dice for the IG. I will impart two stories about dice, The first happened about 10 years ago, at a tournament we hold here in Houston called Nan Con. I watch a Space marine player lose three games in a row, because of ( he sayes ) dice rolling. After the last game he went out side lined up this hold cube of dice chose 2 especialy grievious dice. and smashed them with a brick. A friend and i nearly spit out our drinks it was so funny.
A couple of years ago, the night before a league tournament. I mentioned that I hoped I would do well and not get beaten due to unlucky dice roll. After getting a "wife" look:eek: She calmly stated that if i came back with a win, then it wouldnt be only the dice that got lucky. needless to say I took 2nd, but showed the prize and said I had won. just not what place.:p

theluc
12-12-2009, 05:11 AM
Hi major.. ok first i already played IG before an with the huge amount of troops i had at my disposition i still didnt manage to hurt the opponents troops, 52 hits of lasguns in a squad of eldar guardians, 3 wounds and 0 models removed, no need to say my opponent was rolling on the floor.

my CSM vs IG, 14 termies vs 6 ogryns..after close combat no ogryns left, 3 termies survived

csm vs loyalist scum, my termies chainfist the opponent land raider, land raider goes kaboom, termies die but my own land raider was a bit close...mine too was blown to oblivion.

my 3 obliterators vs 6 raverner dunno how i did that but wiped 5 of them, the last raverner killed my 3 obliterators.

so if that is not bad dice rolling i wonder what it is