Some mathhammer - DE and first turn

[isotope99]

I've been looking at reworking my DE list (1,500pt beast heavy) and have been considering whether it is worth investing in Vect or the Baron to enhance the chances of first turn, or spam out more beasts to overcome any bad luck.

This is what I came up with in case anyone is interested. In short, the percentages are lower than I expected:

No characters: 50%/50%

Baron: 62%/38%

[36 results, 21 win, 5 draws and 10 losses = 68%:32% but the opponent noe has a better relative chance to steal the initiative, so the percentage is reduced]

Vect: 67%/33%

[You get a 50% chance to steal the initiative, but the opponent can still steal it from you so percentage is reduced. Only 5 better than the baron]

Vect & Baron: 73%/27%

[Combine the two and things are looking better but still less than 75% even with both characters]

My conclusion is that I can get almost a whole extra beast squad if I drop Vect to a half price Archon, so vect is out. The Baron is a much better buy but doesn't fit so well with my army as he can't easily join a beast or transported squad, I'd have to give him some hellions.

Here are two alternative army lists, grateful for advice?

• Archon (S/F, drugs, agoniser)
• Haemo (WWP, shattershard)
• 3 wracks in venom (to plant WWP)
• 8 wracks with liquifier in raider (scoring unit)
• 9 wyches with agoniser hekatrix, haywire and shardnet in raider (accompanies archon)
• 3 * 11 man beast squad (4 razors, 4 khymarae, 4 beastmasters)
• 2 * ravager
• Void raven with NS, FF, 2 missiles

• Baron
• 10 Hellions (scoring, can use beasts for cover)
• Haemo w/venom blade (make wracks scoring)
• 8 wracks with liquifier in raider (scoring unit)
• 9 wyches with agoniser hekatrix, haywire and shardnet in raider (accompanies archon)
• 3 * 11 man beast squad (4 razors, 4 khymarae, 4 beastmasters)
• 2 * ravager
• Void raven with NS, FF, 2 missiles

Second list has more scoring bodies, one less KP and a better chance to go first but loses the WWP attack option and archon's agoniser.

[thecactusman17]

Drop a beastmaster or two in each squad and get yourself some more missiles on the Voidraven. It helps a LOT. Personally, I recommend the stock monoscythe missiles for their ability to actually destroy tanks and the bubble wrap around them.

[TheSustainableCenter]

I don't think you can deliver a turn 1 killing blow with a beast heavy army, or any DE army. So spending so much on an HQ who helps you go first seems foolish to me.

[islyfe]

I'm sorry but with only 3 anti tank option in your lists your going to have a real hard doing anything to mech lists, all your skimmers going to be blown of the sky. While your beasts are going to be stuck in the open eating all the anti infantry fire. With the cost and quantity of Dark Lances in this codex I don't see it being able to really get an alpha strike on any armies that consist of lots armor 11/12 vehicles.