Doing my head in....

[Psychosplodge]

But that's too hard for the rest of us Dab

Today I met someone who said they didn't believe in climate change. I had to bite my tongue and not comment that it's evidence based so it doesn't matter if you believe in it or no.

I'm disappointed in you Wolfie. It's only evidence based when you ignore all the stuff that suggests it isn't happening like maybe the decade of average temperatures post 1998? or the hottest decade of the twentieth century being the 30s iirc?
Climate change is the theory that fails to accurately predict anything but is routinely cited in hindsight.

But more than anything though we're working with a data set of what 150 years? Whereas temperature cycles on the planet are measured in what tens?of thousands of years? hundreds of thousands of years?

[eldargal]

Well, climate change is unquestionably real. The issues come about with the questions are humans responsible, if so to what extent, how are we doing it, and how accurate our measurements are etc. For example global temperature estimates are taken using the thermostats in weather stations which were not intended for such a use, many have been decommissioned over the past 50 years and something like 90% of them in the US do not meet their own operating standards to ensure accuracy. a big study in America found that up to 50% of warming associated with climate change could be explained by human deforestation. Less foliage, more sunlight reaches the ground, higher temperatures, less moisture retention etc. Not carbon emissions.

And yes the scientific temperature record we have goes back 2-2.5 centuries and the current inter-glacial climatic period is ten thousand years old or so.

It's a hugely complicated issue that has been reduced to 'nuh-uh!' and 'uh-huh!' and taken a left/right divide which is completely counter productive and un-scientific.

[Psychosplodge]

It's been reduced to a handy excuse everytime someone wants to tax something...

It doesn't fill you with confidence when there's leaked emails from a university that ask how they can spin the results to support the idea of human influence.

[Kirsten]

it is happening, and it is a major problem. pretending it isn't is dangerous and stupid.

[Psychosplodge]

There's not enough evidence saying humans cause it.

[eldargal]

Yup but the worst thing in those leaks never even got media attention, you had the poor software engineer responsible for the modelling complaining about how he had to keep rejigging the models to make sure that the scientists got the numbers they wanted to come out at the other end. Not to mention they never mention the margin of error in the calculations is up to +/- 100 degrees for a 2100 prediction, so its 'temperatures might be higher by 3 degrees in 2100 years, +/- 100 degrees. Doesn't sound so impressive then.

[daboarder]

There's not enough evidence saying humans cause it.

ill get you some literature tomorrow splodge, not at work so dont have access to the journals at the moment

- - - Updated - - -

Yup but the worst thing in those leaks never even got media attention, you had the poor software engineer responsible for the modelling complaining about how he had to keep rejigging the models to make sure that the scientists got the numbers they wanted to come out at the other end. Not to mention they never mention the margin of error in the calculations is up to +/- 100 degrees for a 2100 prediction, so its 'temperatures might be higher by 3 degrees in 2100 years, +/- 100 degrees. Doesn't sound so impressive then.

sigh, shouldnt have taken you off the ignore list...

See people this is why properly reporting sources not hearsay or BS is important.

Look, when an entire community of scientists from independent labs around to world agree on a phenomena and can attribute it to a cause, they are likely right. Because the idea that its a giant conspiracy theory perpetrated by the entire community of literally millions with people as young as 21 involved is just patently ridiculous.

[eldargal]

it is happening, and it is a major problem. pretending it isn't is dangerous and stupid.

It is, and it is. The problem is to what extent humans are responsible and how much is natural, and what the cause is. Like I said a lot of it in the US can be attributed to deforestation which is a human behaviour but that gets almost completely ignored over the focus on carbon or big emotive single area issues like the Amazon forest deforestation (which clearly needs to be reversed).

[Psychosplodge]

lols It's been a long time since I've had to read a journal.

[eldargal]

There is also no doubt whatsoever that humans are completely ****ing the planet up, it kind of annoys me that any questioning of any aspect of the global warming thing gets you labeled as someone who just wants things to continue on as normal. We need clean electricity generation, and solar panels, and those nifty transparent solar panel windows should be everywhere and we should have tide power and nuclear fusion when its practical. Not wind farsm because they are ****ing disastrous. We should be driving electric cars and having modern wind powered and electric ships. We should absolutely not be burning fossil fuels that spew massive quantities of radioactive crap into the atmosphere. We need to be combating deforestation and over farming of the ocean. None of that changes if you have some problems with how the data is being interpreted and presented and it is worth pointing out the ACTUAL IPCC report, not the abstract the media reports on, is actually MUCH more nuanced than the abstract.