Games Workshop's stock loses 24% value today. It has begun.

[Lexington]

I've said it in the other thread and I'll say it here. Luxury item in a time of dire financial constraint? of course they will bring in less.

The common wisdom on luxury items (quoted pretty often when it comes to GeeDub financials, actually) is that they sell just fine in a recession. More, this particular recession has been going on for, what, six or seven years now? GW's lot during this time has gone up and down in a way that suggests they're not particularly affected. Also, wargaming as a whole? Doing just fine. Privateer Press has exploded in the last three or so years, and games like Infinity, X-Wing and Dystopian Wars have all gained the sort of player base that hasn't been seen since Warzone and VOR took a shot at it fifteen or so years ago.

I couldn't tell you the actual causes of GW's current financial woes, but the signs point to self-infliction. They'll recover, but what they do to right the ship is going to be "interesting."

[daboarder]

I'd like to throw in some other things you need to note.

Yes GW is still making profit, but who cares, you can make the same profit year in year out as a business and your still considered a failure. Its about growth, it you don't show growth then your in big trouble.

As to GW stock? I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot poll, its long been considered vastly over priced due to its limited numbers and tight controls on who owns it.

[Psyfer]

Eh, I've pretty much given up on GW. The only thing Warhammer and 40k have going for them these days is the setting. The minis are hideously overpriced and the rules are antiquated.

I'd hope GW see the writing on the wall and at the very least drop their prices to a competitive level, but if the last 10 years are anything to go by, I doubt it.

[eldargal]

Meh, one half yearly result means nothing significant. Two would be a problem. GW have no debt and plenty of room to maneuver if you think this is the beginning of the end you're a hyperbolic twit.

[Wolfshade]

I'd like to throw in some other things you need to note.

Yes GW is still making profit, but who cares, you can make the same profit year in year out as a business and your still considered a failure. Its about growth, it you don't show growth then your in big trouble.

As to GW stock? I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot poll, its long been considered vastly over priced due to its limited numbers and tight controls on who owns it.

PWC did a market analysis and gave them 96% of the market share, there is very little room for growth in that, they are at near saturation point.

As for it being over priced, well, the market up until yesterday afternoon disagreed with you.
Yes PP has "exploded" however, a small company growing rapidly can still be smaller than a large company growing slowly.

I am slightly concerned that GW have reached the point where prices are becoming an issue.

They opened higher than they closed today, but still way down on the 15th.

[Wolfshade]

Eh, I've pretty much given up on GW. The only thing Warhammer and 40k have going for them these days is the setting. The minis are hideously overpriced and the rules are antiquated.

I'd hope GW see the writing on the wall and at the very least drop their prices to a competitive level, but if the last 10 years are anything to go by, I doubt it.

You mean the same last 10 years, where they paid off historic debt, heavily invested in new plastic technology to produce the best miniatures in the market?

I am unsure how you can say the rules are "antiquated" in any meanignful way. The two systems 40k and WFB rules are fairly modern, but the whole system of stats and random numbers is mirrored thorughout the sector and in others, consider fallout's special system for instance.

[leighjt]

I used to defend GW... they make fantastic miniatures and books. But the recent prices have been hard to understand and stomach. 3 plastic miniatures (centurions/hive guard) for about £45 is just obscene... it's attempted daylight robbery. I'm not short of a bob-or-two ($$ for the non brits) but even i suck my teeth when i see the prices of the new stuff.
How can they justify the Wraithknight at £70 - the same price as a stompa but a LOT less kit
How can they justify the Exocrine which is a smaller model than the Tyranofex and £9 more expensive

My local games club hardly has any 40k/WFB going on now... we play massive Apocalypse games once or twice a year but that's really it...
We all hoped that the move to plastic would see prices stabilize but (to me) it seems like the board at GW are now only interested in fleecing their customer base. Most of their model kits are not remotely in the price range of Kids, really even in the price range of a Birthday Present. Being honest, i don't think that i could bring myself to introduce any of my friends children into a GW based game system now... simply because they could not afford what they really wanted.

Unless GW find a way to keep their profit margin, but reduce the price point (hint: move the manufacturing out of the UK!!) i see this as a current trend...

[daboarder]

PWC did a market analysis and gave them 96% of the market share, there is very little room for growth in that, they are at near saturation point.

As for it being over priced, well, the market up until yesterday afternoon disagreed with you.
Yes PP has "exploded" however, a small company growing rapidly can still be smaller than a large company growing slowly.

I am slightly concerned that GW have reached the point where prices are becoming an issue.

They opened higher than they closed today, but still way down on the 15th.

then you diversify your investments or you increase the volume of the market.

anyone know how quickly or when exactly the price dropped? any chance they we're issued a warning or a speeding ticket?

[eldargal]

then you diversify your investments or you increase the volume of the market.

anyone know how quickly or when exactly the price dropped? any chance they we're issued a warning or a speeding ticket?

Which is probably why they have been licensing like crazy recently. There will probably be a Warhammer Total War game announced sometime this year too, that will boost royalties when it comes out.

[Wolfshade]

It all seemed to happen yesterday afternoon.
With modern automatic trading you can see very rapid devaluations of share price as one automatic system triggers another and so on. I don't know if that is what happened here though.
I think GW are trying to increase the volume of their market. They are the only table top wargame manufacture that I know of that actually have stores and train their staff to teach people how to play. That might not be the same in other regions.
Diversify is a plan though to where is the question. Looking at how FF took old GW licences and re-vamped them, that would be good, but I wonder how much of that is the same market.
There are a couple of 40k games coming out this year which would be useful.