GW Annual Financial Report dropping this week

[Caitsidhe]

When they make an actual loss as against a reduced profit, then we will have a better idea.

Except that by business standards they did take a loss. Corporations are either growing, holding the line, or in decline. Games Workshop had to gut itself from the inside out just to stay in the black. In short, they maintained a slight profit not by increasing sales (those clearly fell across the board) but by firing people. You do that when you have to do it. It is never a choice. The cost to hire people back and rebuild infrastructure is always twice (if not more) what you gained in eliminating it.

If Games Workshop does not significantly increase sales, she will be in the red quite soon because there remains very little to cut. They can close more of the stores (now one-man operations) and save those salaries and the rent on those locations. What few they actually own they can sell. They can fire the people who they used to fire others. After all, who needs them anymore when most of the people they were brought in to manage are gone. Cannibalism only works for so long before you are eating your own foot.

Their sales have to increase. That is the long and the short of it. That means they either have to hit the market with stuff that just everyone is dying to have (and so far that has not been the case for what is normally their best sellers), or you have to somehow lure people back in with pricing. A lot of you seem adamant about this notion that simply making the best looking models is enough. For a niche market with no competition that might be true. Corporations, however, have to grow to survive. There is competition now, however small and only up and coming. Technology is moving fast too. Hell, a large portion of the people who CREATED the 40K universe are now working somewhere else or starting their own games. We are looking at a landscape where there are up and coming companies that know the business. Let's not kid ourselves here.

[40kGamer]

Except that by business standards they did take a loss. Corporations are either growing, holding the line, or in decline.

Reduced profits is still a long ways from a loss. Even if sales stagnate they can pace inflation and go on indefinitely.

If Games Workshop does not significantly increase sales, she will be in the red quite solidly soon because there remains very little to cut. Their sales have to increase. That is the long and the short of it.

This is a reach as it implicitly assumes that sales will continue to decline or not pace expense inflation.

That means they either have to hit the market with stuff that just everyone is dying to have (and so far that has not been the case for what is normally their best sellers), or you have to somehow lure people back in with pricing.

They still have a gold mine's worth of product to mine... just remains to be seen how much they will capitalize on it.

A lot of you seem adamant about this notion that simply making the best looking models is enough. For a niche market with no competition that might be true. There is competition now, however small and only up and coming. Technology is moving fast too. Hell, a large portion of the people who CREATED the 40K universe are now working somewhere else or starting their own games. We are looking at a landscape where there are up and coming companies that know the business. Let's not kid ourselves here.

Here I'm in full agreement. Making the best looking models is not enough anymore. IMO there are many companies that already match GW on quality models. The big hole other companies still need to fill is backstory... The future will be interesting as their competition grows and builds capita. I'm very interested to see if Mr. Priestly can get his new venture up and running.

[Arkhan Land]

Given the cost and time of molding I think they get more bang for their buck with the larger models.

my other thought on the matter was actualy pertaining to the wild popularity of the Big Robot franchises like Transformers/Gundam/etc. that are ongoing right now in china following the most recent transformers movies

[40kGamer]

my other thought on the matter was actualy pertaining to the wild popularity of the Big Robot franchises like Transformers/Gundam/etc. that are ongoing right now in china following the most recent transformers movies

Hadn't thought of that but it's a solid point. Lots of interest in big robots at the moment. They've even green lighted Pacific Rim 2.

[Caitsidhe]

Reduced profits is still a long ways from a loss. Even if sales stagnate they can pace inflation and go on indefinitely.

I would agree if they hadn't had to downsize so significantly. I will defer the point to you that they can pedal along indefinitely if they sell just enough product to cover costs, but that does not a healthy Corporation make. Private companies handle that better because the owners generally get paid out of the overhead. Stockholders only get dividends and ultimatley hope to sell their stock for higher than they paid for it. A stagnated Corp. isn't going to get a whole lot of new investors nor great enthusiasm or love from those already invested.

This is a reach as it implicitly assumes that sales will continue to decline or not pace expense inflation.

I agree; I am making a prediction.

They still have a gold mine's worth of product to mine... just remains to be seen how much they will capitalize on it.

I agree with you on this 100%. I just think they need a new hand on the wheel.

[Denzark]

I don't think the niche market is '28mm tabletop wargames' I think it is '28mm gothic sci-fi wargames with distinct rules and models for fortifications, planetary assaults, urban warfare and super heavy sized units/vehicles'.

That is pretty niche and they still lead on every metric of that niche.

[Caitsidhe]

I don't think the niche market is '28mm tabletop wargames' I think it is '28mm gothic sci-fi wargames with distinct rules and models for fortifications, planetary assaults, urban warfare and super heavy sized units/vehicles'.

That is pretty niche and they still lead on every metric of that niche.

We can agree to disagree. I see the hobby as wargaming, period. I have the benefit of living smack dab in the middle of two major cities both of which have their own flavor and distinct META (San Antonio and Austin). I get to hang out with and play against lots of different people, some hardcore, die hard fans of Games Workshop and some that don't care what they are playing as long as they are playing. My experiences have taught me that the majority of players just like to game and they will go with whatever system provides them a good time with their pals with the least issues. Some of my friend, who introduced me to 40K and WFB, have started to drift away. These are guys who I would never have thought would give up the ghost. They have always thought I am too cheap or too negative, and yet I'm the one still playing. Most of them have already shifted to playing Bolt Action and Infinity far more often than pulling out one of their 40K armies. When your die hards aren't mustering enough interest to play and are recruiting people for new games, there is a problem.

The truth is that I am cheap. I don't care which game I play, but I prefer to use what I already have. I have never cared a bit about the setting and backgrounds. I know I'm going to sound like a Philistine but I rarely read it unless there is a damn good reason. I flip straight to the rules. Why? I don't think it is written very well. I don't think it is very interesting. To me it always comes across like some weird science fiction version of WWF Wrestling over here in the States. I have never been able to understand how the economy works or how they avoid collapse in the "grimdark" of endless war. I also find everything painfully derivative. I grew up reading all the authors from whom most of the setting and races have been pilfered. Thus, to me it doesn't ever come across as a this cool place; it comes across to me as this crazy quilt. So, since I'm not there for that stuff, I just care about the rules and how good a story me and my pals are going to generate together.

The ironic thing is, as I said before, is that I am still playing whereas many of the people who for years sounded like some of the most loyal fans are not. They aren't getting what they need. The scary thing for Games Workshop is unlike me these people favor the kinds of things Games Workshop says they care about and are selling. These players are all about the setting, the narrative, and are not nearly as competitive as I am. This means that they just aren't getting what they want anymore. As some people have alluded, "Fonzi has jumped the shark." So if Games Workshop isn't keeping guys like me happy (poor rules set) and it isn't keeping guys like them happy (setting and narrative guys) and the price point is really too high for new people to break in, who exactly is going to be buying their products? I'm not trying to be a jerk. While I would take a certain selfish, egotistical glee in continuing to be correct in my predictions, the truth is I don't want Games Workshop to fail. I am invested in them and as I said before... I AM CHEAP. I already have the models I like and plenty of stuff to build more of the kinds of things I like. It will be rather pointless to me if the games continue to dry up. It means that I will be following my friends, yet again, into new games. Right now it is looking like Bolt Action. I will have a good time. To me the game is always the same. It doesn't matter what toys we use. I would rather not have wasted my time. On a good note, some of my metal IG are the right scale and can pass for Germans.