Scottish Independence thread

[Mr Mystery]

I just don't see how you can hope to maintain the same quality or quanitity of producing with 1/10th the budget. Especially as the infrastructure will need to be set up.

And that's fine. Questioning the sanity of independence is one thing. But then claiming England (why not Wales and Northern Ireland too?) should then have a say about whether Scotland gets to stay or not is pure UKIP/BNP drivel, and frankly I expected more from the denizens of BoLS.

[Psychosplodge]

To be fair it does affect everybody in the "United" Kingdom. But on the other hand considering what 90%? of the population resides in England it wouldn't exactly be self determination for Scotland would it?

[Wildeybeast]

My sentiments on paying for stuff come from the fact that Salmond sees England as some leech draining all the life from his country, when it is well known that England heavily subsidises Scotland. Furthermore, he seems to have the expectation that he can basically just carry on being subsidised post independence, as evidenced by his views on the pound. Has he put forward any concrete financial plans about how he plans to pay for things like free university places and prescriptions other than 'with all our oil and gas cash monies'? Is he planning to pay back all the oil and has infrastructure Britain has paid for? Does he have any expectations about taking on Scotland's share of the national debt? He comes across like a petulant, ungrateful teenager who has decided they have had enough of living at home and are moving out, leaving behind all their mess and expecting their parents to pay for it all. He is Farrage with a different accent and less charisma and his brand of insular, narrow minded nationalism is a dangerous slope I want no part.

As for 'kick them out' sentiments, I'm not sure anyone has actually expressed such things seriously and let's not forget that this movement has come from Scottish people, not the UK trying to get rid of them. Though frankly, if Scottish people are stupid enough to decide they agree with Salmond's delusional and dangerous nationalism, his childish rhetoric and failure to see the value in a united, multicultural Britain, then I for one will be happy to see them go.

[Mr Mystery]

Precisely. And that's what all of Scotland wants - self determination.

It's the same demand being represented by support for UKIP about Europe, except with less rabidity, lunacy and racism (well, certainly less racism). Just give the people the vote.

And I think it's precisely the same outcome on both - a resounding 'nah, much better off as we are'. And both referendums are political inevitibilties, if only to make the nutters shut up and go away, once and for all.

Oh, what a year it would be next year to see Niggle Garage fail to win South Thanet (where a UKIP MEP has just been caught calling a Thai supporter 'a ting-tong from somewhere...), and then cry into his 'man of the people' pint when the will of the people is made further manifest, and we vote to stay in Europe (because leaving it means leaving all of it, and that's economic suicide)

Also, Wolfie - cite the bit about England subsidising Scotland. Both sides have presented evidence showing it does and it doesn't, largely because of how Westminster likes to fiddle the Oil revenues.

[Wolfshade]

The similiarities are superficial at best.

The interconnectivity of Scotland and the rest of the UK is from a finacial point of view is almost seamless.
Whereas UK and Europe is very different.

Scotland has the same currency as the UK
The UK does not have the same currency as Europe

All tax raised in Scotland are added toegether and divided (unequally) across the whole UK
All tax raised in the UK is not given to a central EU pot.

The UK is a whoel complete country made up (a bit like the trinity) of individual parts
The EU is not a whole complete country, it is an alliance, with perhaps grand aspirations to be a United Nations of Europe with a pariliamnet, currency, flag, etc.

The association of Scotland to the UK dates back what 1603 with James VI/I? Even before then freedom of movements between peoples a common language (yes various Scottish dialects/languages do exist, but not to the same prevelance)

The association of the UK to the EU was at the Mastrich treaty which most of us were alive for.

We are one peoples, we have a shared history, a shared culture a shared mythology in a way that no other country manages. France & Germany were once united under Charlamagne and yet how dispirate are those two peoples. Belgium, 1 country 2 peoples the Frnech and the Dutch.

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Also, Wolfie - cite the bit about England subsidising Scotland. Both sides have presented evidence showing it does and it doesn't, largely because of how Westminster likes to fiddle the Oil revenues.

Can you point to where I said it was?

[Mr Mystery]

The similiarities are superficial at best.

The interconnectivity of Scotland and the rest of the UK is from a finacial point of view is almost seamless.
Whereas UK and Europe is very different.

Scotland has the same currency as the UK
The UK does not have the same currency as Europe

All tax raised in Scotland are added toegether and divided (unequally) across the whole UK
All tax raised in the UK is not given to a central EU pot.

The UK is a whoel complete country made up (a bit like the trinity) of individual parts
The EU is not a whole complete country, it is an alliance, with perhaps grand aspirations to be a United Nations of Europe with a pariliamnet, currency, flag, etc.

The association of Scotland to the UK dates back what 1603 with James VI/I? Even before then freedom of movements between peoples a common language (yes various Scottish dialects/languages do exist, but not to the same prevelance)

The association of the UK to the EU was at the Mastrich treaty which most of us were alive for.

We are one peoples, we have a shared history, a shared culture a shared mythology in a way that no other country manages. France & Germany were once united under Charlamagne and yet how dispirate are those two peoples. Belgium, 1 country 2 peoples the Frnech and the Dutch.

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Can you point to where I said it was?

Apologies, it was Wildey. I've done it again!

[Wolfshade]

Don't worry.

If Scotland does become independent and it gets to take the majority of the north sea oil then the Scottish government can maintain similiar levels of expenditure as it does now without radically altering the tax or spending. Indeed in some scenarios it operates at a small surpluss.

For the short term, oil consumption is outpacing oil production so the price is going to be basically on an upward trend.

However, there are a couple of concerns with this such as the violatility of the oil price, so if you do the same analysis when the price per barrel is lower than the surpluss rapidly becomes as deficit.

In terms of the biggest threat to this is fracking. The USA is quite the leader in this and by fracking had reduced it's oil imports by 23% (as of 2012). And for coutnires where the economy depends on exported oil this can be a nightmare. Nigeria for instance at 2010 provided 359m barrels of oil to the US, it is now down to 22m, which represents a massive reduction. Which is ok, while there are still other countries willing (and able) to buy it.

The estimate of the amount of oil and revenue from the north sea field is very different depending on which geological/economic position you take up.

We have seen with the UK banking crisis what the effect of having a single focused economy can have. So I would be more comfortable with a wide diverse economy regardless

[40kGamer]

To our transatlantic cousins: are there any states that want to come back to the warm embrace of the motherland? We may have spot opening up for one of you in the future.

Well Texas always has rumblings of secession but they want full independence. It's safe to say that the vast majority of Americans would gladly return Washington DC and the District of Columbia as long as you take all the politicians in the deal.

[Mr Mystery]

Indeed.

There's also vastly conflicting reports about what's left to be drilled out, and even if there's loads, not being a member of OPEC, price fluctuations remain beyond Scottish control.

BUT...............

That the Oil is finite is well know. Nobody is disputing that. What Salmond and Co are arguing is that whilst it's there, Scotland would be better served keeping thay money for itself, and preparing the economy for when it does run dry, whereas Westminster appear happy to leave yet another part of 'Not-London' to rot!

[Wildeybeast]

Which is a big if There has been no clear agreement on how the oil will be divided, or any other number of things. They should have been sorted beforehand, so the Scottish people know exactly what the consequences of voting are. What happens if (as is quite likely) they vote for independence and find the bill to be rather unpalatable? Can they change their minds?

Mystery, it was the same place you found that evidence about Westminster fiddling oil revenues and running the country solely for the benefit of London.

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Actually a quick bit of research turned up [URL="http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0044/00446095.xlsx"]this[/URL]. Even with oil revenue, they still spend more than they earn. Unless Holyrood has power to borrow independent of Westminster, which I don't believe they do, the rest of the country is subsidising them.