British Politics Thread.

[Psychosplodge]

We're not standing on own, no ones talking about leaving NATO. Well except corbyn.

[Mr Mystery]

I was meaning economically.

But to put the theory I sent to you over PM into public.....

Boris Is A Ringer.

Right now, it seems many of the Tory party believe we'll vote to stay in Europe. Opinion polls prior to the EU deal (or 'deal' if you prefer ) showed a clear majority happy to remain. That's not going to be damaged by the deal/'deal'.

However, there remain a not insignificant number of the party faithful who will be voting out. So the top brass has decided to do a Palpatine, and aim for control over both factions.

Why? UKIP. Even though many correctly see him as a nasty piece of work, Nigel Farage has his creepy little cult of not-so-closet racists, and as a party they threaten to attract some traditional Tory voters. And they're all for the Out. So even though they've played precisely no part in bringing about this referendum, old 'Not a Racist, But' Farage would be sure to claim the credit if there is an out, and blame the Tories if it's an In.

Boris, enter stage Right (do you see what I did there?)

He's charismatic. He's a well known face. He's even kind of liked for a Politician, especially compared to the chinless wonder leading UKIP.

He becomes the face of the out. If needs be, he can throw it a bit, keep them just shy of a critical mass.

If it's an Out - ALL HAIL BORIS! Saviour of British (Well, English) sovereignty. HOORAY FOR THE HOME COUNTIES AND SOD EVERYONE ELSE!

If it's an In - Gosh! Crikey! Good game chaps! Will of the people. Eurosceptic. Vote for us. We did all we good. Blimey! Gosh!

All about keeping Farage's tentacles off the head of the campaign.

[Psychosplodge]

I think keeping farage off the leave campaign will boost it though among non farage supporters.

I think Boris leading the exit negotiations in a leave result would result in the possibility of a second referendum because I think ultimately Boris is pro EU but doesn't think the EU listen until people tell them No.

[Mr Mystery]

True.

There's definitely something going on there. I doubt it will stop Farage braying on and on in the home counties, so his chinless mush will still be in the papers - but it's all about not letting him take credit, nor pin the blame. Make him the comedic sideshow, and you can keep him and his lunatics under control.

[Tyrendian]

a few viewpoints from outside the UK, based mostly on our media over here which (at least those parts of it that I read...) does have pretty strong anti-Brexit tendencies:
- Mystery's points about it mostly being tactics, both by Cameron and Johnson, seem very plausible; keeps options for the Tories open to react to how things shape up
- I've always felt like Europe needed eachother in this day and age, not so much militarily (that's what NATO is for) but so that we actually have some reasonable weight politically and economically. I mean, we have a hard enough time as it is with the whole TTIP business, imagine how the US (or Russia, China...) would laugh in the face of any single European state (including but not limited to you Brits) that dares to demand any change in policy that's even mildly inconvenient for them. We'd have next to no leverage. And losing you Brits would mean losing one of the most respected voices in all of those negotiations, which would not only hurt you (because you'd be alone then) but potentially also the rest of Europe. Plus, it'd set quite the precedent for whenever any government that just happened to get elected somewhere (looking at you Hungary and Poland...) gets it in its head that it wants to throw away decades of built-up cooperation (not to mention basic civil rights and Democracy) because they're a bunch of right-wing lackwits.
- You dropping out of the EU would almost definitely hurt both sides economically (because I find it highly unlikely that would survive that drastic a change in political relations unscathed). More so than whatever benefits you might gain short-term by not paying to Brussels. But well I'm no economist so that's just my amateur guess, and I'm sure you could find hundreds of experts and thousands of statistics to prove both sides of the argument.
- Add to that the fact that having cooperation with your neighbours also means you can rely on them to help you should things go real sour. Look at Spain, Portugal, Ireland... significant economical crises, but they (to a degree) managed to pull through... heck even Greece, although they are having a much harder time. I highly doubt that would have gone better if everyone had just ignored any of those countries and left them to sort out their own mess.

That's not to say I think the EU does a flawless job right now, there's a ton of flaws for sure! There's a LOT of nonsense coming from Brussels, at every level. Many a good idea at our local level has foundered because of some obscure EU regulation. The EU parliament seems to get nothing done that's of much value. And yes, we're all paying quite a bit of money into that sinkhole (Germany roughly three times as much as the UK from what I've turned up in a lightning fast search of government statements, but that's not my point). But it's not like there wasn't anything good coming back, see above. And I think those outweigh paying 0.5% of our GDP in the long run.
Besides, I actually think having the Brexit issue go big as it does now may just be to the benefit of all because it may help shake up the rust and dust, and might force some real change. It hasn't done so in a major way yet, it seems, but who knows what may come of it in the long run.

[Psychosplodge]

What is the average Germans view of the EU? From what little continental media I've seen we appear to be depicted as the only country with a negative view of the EU.

[Mr Mystery]

Good point about the threat being a shake up potentially for all.

We've got some kind of concession, showing it is possible to renegotiate on the fly. I'm sure there are other countries now looking at their own leadership and asking 'well, why not us, too?'

If anything Britain has done well to be the first out of that trap. We've set a benchmark for demands that can be met, whether or not anyone thinks them being met amounts to much. That establishes a precedent and a framework.

[Tyrendian]

What is the average Germans view of the EU? From what little continental media I've seen we appear to be depicted as the only country with a negative view of the EU.

wel... you Brits have a reputation for being a bit strange anyway, which I can verify :P both from on here and from the occasional visit. Especially your news, feels like you are trying to forget that there is a Rest of the World sometimes

The "Average German's" view of the EU seems to me to depend heavily on the education and economic situation of the individual (I realize how elitist this sounds, take it with a grain (or sack) of salt but that's how it appears to me). Most of the sceptics tend to be on the lower end of those scales, with a few exceptions. A few years back a somewhat serious anti-EU movement emerged, but, especially since the onset of the refugee waves, that quickly got swamped in deep brown, racist filth, to the point where their founder and former leader, a somewhat respected economist, forcefully disassociated himself from them. They never seemed to gain much traction with their anti-EU stance (hovered around 5% of the votes), but right now they're scarily successful with their anti-refugee paroles (to the point where one of the leaders actually advocated shooting illegal immigrants at the border... not like we hadn't had that sort of thing some 30 years ago...).
Oh, and then there's the lead politicians from Bavaria, who I regard as a bunch of utter idiots but experts in populistic nonsense - those will say almost anything to grab right-wing votes because they're too clueless to stay in power with any sort of reasonable arguments. Think US Republicans, including some (but by no means all, they're not quite as bad as that) of the Christian fundamentalist drivel and you're not far off.

[Psychosplodge]

tbf our split anecdotally appears to be along geographic lines(at least based on who's mentioned it on fb), with a clear difference between outs in the north and remains in the south which could also be an economic argument as you're likely to earn more in the south east.
Education appears to be playing less of a part, than geography from what I'm seeing.

The Rest of the World only matters when we're invading bits of it

[grimmas]

The Rest of the World only matters when we're invading bits of it

Which is what it's for. Especially mainland Europe 😊