Article about GW on Yahoo Finance.

[Deadlift]

probably the aforementioned decimated sales numbers....

Absolutely, and I know for certain in my area players were dropping 40k quickly and switching to X-Wing. Others to Malifaux, infinity or Warmahordes. Price being the main catalyst for change. From what I read on various forums it isn't just in my area either. No matter what the article says or doesn't say, the fact of the matter is sales are going down and that's not a good thing for GW fans.

[40kGamer]

GW has lost a lot of players in my area but on the flip side other games are thriving. It may be just some cyclical thing but I've seen enough to be concerned with the overall health of the GW hobby in the local market.

[CoffeeGrunt]

Similar deal here, though the issue seems to be more about time, rather than money...mostly. I'm aiming to try and get Kill Team going as a thing because of this, as I found some good rules online for it that should be fun to try out.

I think it's a very fair appraisal of GW for the most part. They're important, though a lot of people dislike it. They're the one most people start on before diversifying or simply selling onto another game. They get people into the hobby, and without GW stores dotted around, I imagine the whole industry would find it that bit harder to grab would-be wargamers.

However, they do have a raft of issues, and it's hard to tell what the magic formula would be for profitability. It likely won't be as simple as just lowering the prices - people are complaining despite the options for 20% cuts from online resellers, and that's a lot of money lost to GW if they made that cut themselves. Hell, my local does a 10% off deal, which is nice.

Also the link in the author's name is a dead link, so it's hard to check their credentials. They appear to be part of a stock analyst firm, but the article itself is presented without a lot of intimate knowledge of the field, so it's hard to tell if it's any more informed than some of the articles on here.

As always, whenever someone mentions GW's falling profits, I ask them how Privateer, FFG and whoever makes Malifaux are doing financially. We don't get that data because they're not PLCs, and without that data, we're trying to compare GW in a vacuum rather than against its competition in a like-for-like, empirical manner. The smart money's on these companies enjoying a steady growth, but there are unseen factors that could be bleeding their profits, it could be that the entire industry is slumping, but GW is the chunky tip of the iceberg that we can see.

Never been in a community that so intensely scrutinised one of its provider's financials, though...

[40kGamer]

However, they do have a raft of issues, and it's hard to tell what the magic formula would be for profitability. It likely won't be as simple as just lowering the prices - people are complaining despite the options for 20% cuts from online resellers, and that's a lot of money lost to GW if they made that cut themselves. Hell, my local does a 10% off deal, which is nice.

Personally I think it's all about value rather than price. If people are happy enough with a product they tend to accept the price even if it is a wee bit high.

As always, whenever someone mentions GW's falling profits, I ask them how Privateer, FFG and whoever makes Malifaux are doing financially. We don't get that data because they're not PLCs, and without that data, we're trying to compare GW in a vacuum rather than against its competition in a like-for-like, empirical manner. The smart money's on these companies enjoying a steady growth, but there are unseen factors that could be bleeding their profits, it could be that the entire industry is slumping, but GW is the chunky tip of the iceberg that we can see.

We should see a slight change here. Now that FFG has been brought into the Asmodee fold we will eventually get some information on them. (Hopefully they will be treated as a separate division and at least get a line item in the public reports.)

Never been in a community that so intensely scrutinised one of its provider's financials, though...

It is an interesting situation. GW is under the microscope with the net crowd.

[BeardMonk]

As always, whenever someone mentions GW's falling profits, I ask them how Privateer, FFG and whoever makes Malifaux are doing financially. We don't get that data because they're not PLCs, and without that data, we're trying to compare GW in a vacuum rather than against its competition in a like-for-like, empirical manner. The smart money's on these companies enjoying a steady growth, but there are unseen factors that could be bleeding their profits, it could be that the entire industry is slumping, but GW is the chunky tip of the iceberg that we can see.

I think for a lot of people, its not GW profits or price point that so much the problem for. As a WMH player I think PP products are in the same price bracket as GW although with the new generation of plastic kits being released by PP the price has come down a FEW £'s.

I think the reason why people scrutinise GW is because of their apparent lack of customer communication and community feedback and perceived unwillingness to interact with their customer base and support the games themselves. In a void of information people crawl over any facts they can get their hands on. thus the focus on the financials. People are then extrapolating outwards from there.

For my 2p's worth I do think that GW is in trouble although I think they are more than capable of bringing it back if they interact with their customers and player base more and formally support competitive play. I love GW models and use them a lot for things such a Pathfinder RPG. But as a games company they can learn a lot from the PP model IMO.

[Wolfshade]

I think the reason why people scrutinise GW is because of their apparent lack of customer communication and community feedback and perceived unwillingness to interact with their customer base and support the games themselves. In a void of information people crawl over any facts they can get their hands on. thus the focus on the financials. People are then extrapolating outwards from there.

For my 2p's worth I do think that GW is in trouble although I think they are more than capable of bringing it back if they interact with their customers and player base more and formally support competitive play. I love GW models and use them a lot for things such a Pathfinder RPG. But as a games company they can learn a lot from the PP model IMO.

Unfortunately, this is not the perception that GW get. Whether this is through the communication that managers pass to GW central at "the coal face" or through their any of their events, like black library live, forgeworld studio events, games day etc.

[Path Walker]

People leave the hobby and always have, they move on, happens with all hobbies.

People in your area are moving on to a different game, great, people else where are moving into 40k, a new generation of 12 year olds are getting hooked. Hell, most people I know dropped the hobby completly from 18-28 while we went out and spent our money on drink and sex and now we're back because we have settled down a bit.

The anecdotal evidence of a few people you know doesn't mean diddly.

and daboarder doesn't know the sales are falling because he hasn't seen this years sales figures.

Many people are more excited about GW than they have been for a long time, between The End Times and the fun of 7th ed 40K, GW are reacting to the market and beginning to engage with its core customers a bit more, giving them things they said they wanted for ages, campagins, discounted boxed sets, white dwarf that had fluff articles and rules in it, its a good time to be a hobbyist.

[Caitsidhe]

People in your area are moving on to a different game, great, people else where are moving into 40k, a new generation of 12 year olds are getting hooked. Hell, most people I know dropped the hobby completly from 18-28 while we went out and spent our money on drink and sex and now we're back because we have settled down a bit.

You see, this is one of those "cultural" differences between players in the United States and elsewhere. We don't have a new generation of twelve year olds. We never had an old generation of them. In the United States this is a game played by adults. Our kids have better things to do, or at least things they can afford. Anecdotal or not, it is reliable information I'm giving you. Once in a while you will have a father show up at a tournament with his kid in tow. That is about as close as we get to children in our US version of the hobby. What this means, for sales in the United States at least, is that there isn't a new player joining for every player lost.

All that being said, Games Workshop might not care about losing the US market. Perhaps we aren't a big enough part of their sales. Perhaps they have already ceded our market and are just waiting for it to die. That wonderful CEO who just recently stepped aside might see it as good in the long run somehow. What I can tell you is that their strategy isn't working in the United States. Anecodatal or not, I can tell you that interest in 40K is at an all time low everywhere I go. You mentioned the core players earlier, which I find ironic because even people who were hardcore by American standards have jumped ship, i.e. people I never would have believed would give the game up.

[CoffeeGrunt]

People quit hobbies all the time, same as people quit jobs. This is because people change. I don't expect to be doing the same stuff I'm doing now in a decade's time, and nor does anyone else really. A few years ago I was addicted to videogames, and now I never play any, for example.

I'm pretty sure that there are new people picking games up all the time.

[Caitsidhe]

People quit hobbies all the time, same as people quit jobs. This is because people change. I don't expect to be doing the same stuff I'm doing now in a decade's time, and nor does anyone else really. A few years ago I was addicted to videogames, and now I never play any, for example.

I'm pretty sure that there are new people picking games up all the time.

I agree. People only stay with games that continue to thrill them. The question is whether or not they are picking up 40K or Warhammer Fantasy. That doesn't appear to be the case, at least not in the numbers to offset those moving on to other games. The simple truth is there are more games now, i.e. more competition (both inside the hobby and from different hobbies). Sticking to this thread, the question is whether this niche market has peaked. That is the only thing investors care about. Will a business continue to grow or has it peaked?