Misjudging the Market: AOS VS Star Wars

[nsc]

For all the boasting and pandering of these, "other games," and how they're, "taking over," GW still moves more product here than all the competitors combined.

Also note how GW has released analytics saying that most purchases come from a wargamers first 18 months in the hobby. How little WHFB sold before and during the end times. Now explain to me why GW owes anything to these supposed "die-hard-Caitsidhe fans" who weren't profitable consumers.

The facts are pretty clear-cut, if rank and file square bases made money then AoS wouldn't have come out, instead GW moved to balance the armies and bring every "army book" to similar levels of strength, they allow customizing your forces to be much simpler, they're making it easier for consumers to have the product conform to them (you can just buy whatever models you want and play with them, nothing says you need a whole army just because you like the look of this one unit), they allow the game to scale much smaller than before, which combines with the last part to allow players to slowly grow new armies one box at a time, they allow old armies to be modified in the same way (buying and using single boxes at a time).

You say that Americans want the game to conform to them, it does, no longer are you told how you have to play with your toys, but somehow this is more restrictive before and you have to conform to the product?

[Caitsidhe]

For all the boasting and pandering of these, "other games," and how they're, "taking over," GW still moves more product here than all the competitors combined.

Agreed. I have never debated this point. My argument is that their current course of action is leading to that changing. The evidence I cite to support that is a steadily declining sales as shown in the last several reports, the shake up at Games Workshop itself and its product line, and the rather awkward public relations situations it has as compared to its competitors.

Also note how GW has released analytics saying that most purchases come from a wargamers first 18 months in the hobby. How little WHFB sold before and during the end times. Now explain to me why GW owes anything to these supposed "die-hard-Caitsidhe fans" who weren't profitable consumers.

Games Workshop doesn't owe the die-hard fans anything. Games Workshop isn't in a partnership with its consumer base. It is a merchant that wants to divest them of their dollars and cause them to buy more product. The fact that Fantasy was tanking isn't surprising. Mr. Mystery and I used to debate about that a long ways back. I had this funny theory that as the game got more and more random that the worse effect it would have on long term sales. I have this crazy idea that a successful game requires game balance. The last edition of Warhammer Fantasy was just another step towards chaos and random game outcomes. The game tanked HARD. I suppose it could be a coincidence but I did state it would happen and WHY I thought it would happen. The funny thing is that AOS didn't learn a single thing from that failure in sales. They drew entirely different conclusions. They translated random right out of Warhammer Fantasy and made it central to AOS. In regards to the 18 month metric, I have no idea how they would even calculate that. Even if it were true, are we (as consumers) honestly going to cheer a company that states after eighteen months they don't give a rat's patootie about us?

The facts are pretty clear-cut, if rank and file square bases made money then AoS wouldn't have come out, instead GW moved to balance the armies and bring every "army book" to similar levels of strength, they allow customizing your forces to be much simpler, they're making it easier for consumers to have the product conform to them (you can just buy whatever models you want and play with them, nothing says you need a whole army just because you like the look of this one unit), they allow the game to scale much smaller than before, which combines with the last part to allow players to slowly grow new armies one box at a time, they allow old armies to be modified in the same way (buying and using single boxes at a time).

The question is why didn't it make money? As I have pointed out in other posts, it wasn't so long ago that that the champions of this current edition were singing the PRAISES of 8th Edition Fantasy. You will forgive me if I take that with a grain of salt? What has actually changed?

You say that Americans want the game to conform to them, it does, no longer are you told how you have to play with your toys, but somehow this is more restrictive before and you have to conform to the product?

You missed my point. Americans like rules in our games. We like them standardized. We like the ties that bind. We like plug and play. Believe it or not, we like being told how to play with our toys.

[40kGamer]

Though there are of course a number of conclusion we could draw - panic buying from those sticking with the devil they know, seeking to ensure SQUARE BASE GOOD, ROUND BASE BAD forever more. Could be long dormant gamers updating their collections for Warhammer. Could be long dormant gamers updating their collections for AoS. There's a lot of possibilities, and if I'm honest it's like 'little column A, bit of column B' etc.

I've done a lot of defensive buying since AoS was released to ensure I can play the old style to my dying day. (All this with me not having played a game of WFB since 1999) I still haven't been able to get excited about the new game but who knows what it's going to look like in a couple years the way they keep changing their design philosophies.

- - - Updated - - -

For all the boasting and pandering of these, "other games," and how they're, "taking over," GW still moves more product here than all the competitors combined.

Given that we have no numbers for the hundreds of small manufacturers, the historical community or all of the copyright pirates in the world, I find this claim highly dubious at best.

[40kGamer]

I have this crazy idea that a successful game requires game balance. The last edition of Warhammer Fantasy was just another step towards chaos and random game outcomes. The game tanked HARD. I suppose it could be a coincidence but I did state it would happen and WHY I thought it would happen. The funny thing is that AOS didn't learn a single thing from that failure in sales. They drew entirely different conclusions. They translated random right out of Warhammer Fantasy and made it central to AOS.

You bloody heretic! 'True' gamers want to hold hands and sing Kumbaya while letting the random whims of fate rule the day. Balance and structure only exist to serve the selfish WAAC players who want to burn and salt the earth to destroy all life.

In regards to the 18 month metric, I have no idea how they would even calculate that. Even if it were true, are we (as consumers) honestly going to cheer a company that states after eighteen months they don't give a rat's patootie about us?

Sounds like one of those statistics that is pulled right out of someone's butt. Unless they are assigning customers some kind of loyalty number and tracking their purchases at all gaming outlets it has no meaning. I don't know how you could even begin to make that claim in the US market. Everyone I know buys from multiple bricks and mortar as well as online with almost noone buying from GW direct since they never discount.

You missed my point. Americans like rules in our games. We like them standardized. We like the ties that bind. We like plug and play. Believe it or not, we like being told how to play with our toys.

We also like things to make sense and to be able to play with random people at a set level for the game. Even American 'gaming clubs' are super loose affairs that have people coming and going constantly. Maybe they can grab the 9 year old market with this type of product. I've only ever seen a couple of kids under college age playing anything GW, and they were playing with their parent!

[Erik Setzer]

Not really, no.

And can you define 'GW's derp' please? And how do you mean GW, a company noted for their miniatures, 'got into the miniatures' side?

I'm not in agreement with any comment that GW "got into the miniatures side," since they always were, but I will correct you on your own statement as well. Games Workshop is a company noted for their GAMES. The miniatures are used to play the games that people know about. The background was created to support the games.

Even Games Workshop effectively admits - without saying it aloud, of course - that games are what drive their sales of miniatures, not the other way around. Would you claim WFB's models were bad? No, of course not. So why did the WFB line of miniatures stop selling? Because there were problems with the game (some of which are related to the cost to play the game with their figures, so that was a miniature-related problem). They threw out WFB and brought in AoS in order to try to rejuvenate sales of an entire line of miniatures, because without the game, they couldn't sell the figures.

Every time someone trots out that line about "they're a miniatures company" at face value, I have to wonder if they're even paying attention. Yes, they make miniatures. The miniatures support the games. The games are why we have the universe everyone knows, and what most people (when not prodded by GW to do otherwise) refer to GW by. They're even renaming their stores after the games (ironically, the game they killed off and replaced because they neglected it so much).

GW's known for their games, as they should be. Sure, people know the miniatures you use to play the games as well. But let's not pretend they're a model company, or that they'd be able to exist as they are now if they ever kicked the games to the curb.

[Erik Setzer]

See, I just can't buy into the 'AoS has ruined Warhammer forever more'.

Not because I enjoy AoS for what it is, but because, well, Oldhammer is something of a well worn tradition. Those who played earlier editions of the game will continue to do so.

(Snipped all the rest because it'd take up too much space to requote.)

I have a ton of older books *including* T&T (had to bring my own copy often for our local T&T games). Would have a lot more, but, well, fire happened. Still rebuilding the collection through used book stores and other means as I can. I've got quite a collection of downloads as well.

Doesn't really mean much, though. People aren't playing the game any more.

The game wasn't "well worn" or anything. It's sad that people defend the new thing by saying whatever it replaced was old and needed to die... especially when the "new" thing is really just a simpler version of another type of game that's been around about as long as the other "well worn tradition." To that end, AoS is just as much relying on "well worn tradition," just a different type.

AoS *did* kill Warhammer. It's dead. And that's probably going to always leave a lot of people sour on AoS. Even more so because, really, it wouldn't have cost that much to just keep updating it in electronic format or something and release rules for new models online, like they're doing with AoS. Realistically, they could have kept two sets of rules going for the same miniatures. Given that they claim they're a "miniatures company" and all, it would seem like a great idea to try to appeal to as many people as possible. But that didn't happen, because... well, who knows? There's so many times dumb things happen and they're preventable, but I guess Kirby and Rountree know better than everyone. And now WFB is dead. Yeah.

Ahem. Yeah, I let some of my own bitterness through there. But it's more toward the Board who killed a game because they refused to admit they weren't doing things right (and actively went in the wrong direction).

You can talk anecdotally about your own scene, but then the rest of us can as well. The local GW store has a dwindling group of players, and the fantasy scene is down to a tiny number who all get on one table to do a multiplayer match they never finish every weekend. The shelves are filled with fantasy product, and a ridiculous number of AoS books. The FLGS's in the area aren't moving the product particularly well. A loose "tournament" was set up, and barely attracted anyone. It seems more people are playing Warmachine now (there was always a decent WM crowd, but the WFB players still outnumbered them). People are looking at Kings of War, or Frostgrave. Yeah, think about that: AoS is sold to us on the idea that "you can play it with just a few models!," but people would still rather play a different skirmish-level game. (Mainly because below a certain model count, AoS goes way too fast and its extreme simplicity shows, making you wonder why you aren't just playing a $20 game instead. As the model count goes up, the price also expands tremendously. This isn't that noticeable for people with existing armies or those with plenty of cash they willingly throw at anything GW releases, but is an issue for new players.)

So, yeah, good for your area. In our area it basically just pushed people to go to other companies for enjoyable fantasy games.

The thing to really watch for is what happens if AoS can't grab a spot and hold on and claw its way up? Since miniatures are sold by the games, if the game isn't able to keep an audience, GW might be faced with half of its line being unable to sell well. Would they actually at that point cut off half of their line? Would they explain it away as saying no one wants fantasy models? Would they actually admit publicly that the games are what drive the sales of miniatures and so they should put effort into making good games that had lower barrier of entry and a good balance to allow for pick up games and all?

I don't hope for AoS to fail, but I am curious to see what would happen if it did. Would the Board stubbornly keep up their current attitude, or would they realize that shedding all but one product line is an example that something is very, very wrong?

- - - Updated - - -

Also note how GW has released analytics saying that most purchases come from a wargamers first 18 months in the hobby. How little WHFB sold before and during the end times. Now explain to me why GW owes anything to these supposed "die-hard-Caitsidhe fans" who weren't profitable consumers.

Oh? Please do share with the class. I've never seen any numbers on what's actually selling coming directly from GW. They don't even break down what's GW "proper," what's BL, and what's FW, much less break down paints, magazines, 40K, WFB/AoS, LoTR/Hobbit, etc.

[Charon]

Sounds like one of those statistics that is pulled right out of someone's butt. Unless they are assigning customers some kind of loyalty number and tracking their purchases at all gaming outlets it has no meaning. I don't know how you could even begin to make that claim in the US market. Everyone I know buys from multiple bricks and mortar as well as online with almost noone buying from GW direct since they never discount.

Actually I can believe that. Seems to be the time span where people finally realize that the game does not get more fair if they buy different models.
On a more serious note: I did hear something similar from a friend of mine when he had his "indoctrination". He does not know where the numbers come from but they use it in their training.
It is funny as it was quite the opposite with me as I did not bother to buy boxes just to convert/model/kitbash which I do now in addition to expanding and starting new armies (40k that is).

[40kGamer]

Actually I can believe that. Seems to be the time span where people finally realize that the game does not get more fair if they buy different models.
On a more serious note: I did hear something similar from a friend of mine when he had his "indoctrination". He does not know where the numbers come from but they use it in their training.
It is funny as it was quite the opposite with me as I did not bother to buy boxes just to convert/model/kitbash which I do now in addition to expanding and starting new armies (40k that is).

Guess I was atypical. I bought very little for the first 4 years since I was a college kid, hard to burn $ on games when you're lucky to afford food. Purchases increased year by year until 6th 40k tipped over the apple cart and it's been downhill from there.

[spiralingcadaver]

You bloody heretic! 'True' gamers want to hold hands and sing Kumbaya while letting the random whims of fate rule the day. Balance and structure only exist to serve the selfish WAAC players who want to burn and salt the earth to destroy all life.

LMAO!

Also, eloquently put, caitsidhe