Abaddon is going to Win (and it's all Guilliman's fault)

[grimmas]

Abaddon is going to win.

Not only that in it's current state the Imperium won't be able to stop him.

I've been hitting the books (BL, FW and GW proper) and this is the conclusion I've arrived at.

Let's start at the beginning. The Great Crusade and Horus Heresy have shown us that it's all about the Astartes. There is nothing in the Galaxy that can't be beaten with the correct application of Astartes. They are the kings of the battlefield in the 41st Millennium much like the Tank in The Second World War. Much like the Shadukar in Dune they are the defining force that created and holds the empire together. interesting I think this is one of the biggest conceptual misconceptions people make when comparing Astartes to the Mobile infantry of Starship Troopers ( the book not film) but more of that later. Basically who controls the greatest force of Astartes controls the Galaxy and that "Who" is Abaddon

In fact I'd go as far to say that only Abaddon controls any Astartes and all the Imperium possess is Space Marines. Astartes are main line troops who fight major campaigns In real numbers they do not mince round in tiny numbers lending support to other troops. Abbadon is also the only being in the Galaxy to command an Astartes Legion and that is a significant factor. The Black Legion is not simply the Sons of Horus renamed that's just what the inquisition tells you (for reference see ADBs Talon of Horus) it is a true Legion comprised of Astartes from what were the other Traitor Legions and from its own recruitment (remember all that geneseed they got given in Storm of Iron) and outcasts from loyalist chapters. All these parts are not a loose alliance they are a true Legion held together by bonds of brotherhood as they were before the later stages of the Heresy.

This is important because no on else has a Legion, the traitors have been broken in battle Like the Nightlords, broken by their own corruption as the emperors children are, fragmented due to internal power struggles as the Word Bearers have been or just been Kharn'd like the World Eaters. Loyalist wise Guilliman and his Codex has done for them. You see Chapters are pretty much the least efficient fighting force with tens (if not hundreds) of rear echelon workers just to keep each Space Marine fighting, unlike the Mobile infantry (see I said they'd come up) who were massively efficient "everyone fights!" Wasn't a threat it was practicality they had no rear echelon the cooks fought, the doctor fought and the mechanics fought. Now the Legions weren't quite that good but they were better than having whole different logistics set up for every 1000 troops.

Chapters just don't have the cohesion between each other to create a force to counter Legion operation. It's been nearly 10000 years since the loyalists were split. Even Chapters with same geneseed are very disparate now. Just look at Uriel Ventris' reaction to the the Ultramarines successor chapter the Mortifactors in Warriors of Ultramar. We're a long way from what they managed at Tsanglusa.

Force is most effectively applied to a small point. A legion can focus its efforts in a small point and break it. A 1000 chapters spread across the galaxy fighting fires can't. If we take the examples of Germany defeating France during The Second World War. France and her allies had plenty of tanks which possessed better armour and bigger guns than the Germans but they were spread across France and the Germans hit at a small point with all their force overwhelming the Allied armies who were only able to respond piecemeal resulting in one of the most stunning military victories of all time. That's exactly what Abaddon will do. His Black Legion will hit in a concentrated point scattering the Chapters before it and burning Terra from history. Even better he has the remnants of the of Traitor Legions which are entirely disposable and can be sent out to start fires all over the Galaxy without diminishing his primary force, fires which are going to require the loyalist chapters to respond to.

The imperium Isn't going to be able to do what the Russia did at the siege of Stalingrad either. Abaddon isn't going to spread his force to conquer the whole Imperium he's just going to strike at it heart. He isn't going to being fighting symbolic battles over a wide front splitting his forces. He's going for the throat. Any second front is going to be open by him using (as mentioned before) his disposable allied Legion remnants which will split the forces opposed to him rather than doing it to his own primary force. Also the Imperium doesn't have allies that will be continually providing resources like the UK and US did for Russia. In fact from what we know of the Cabal the alien races opposed to Chaos actually want the Imperium to fall to Chaos and burn out taking most of the worshippers of the ruinous powers with it.

So we are talking about Legion Warfare something that cannot be countered by anything thing other than by other Legions. If it weren't for the Hersey the Legions would have used this to scour Alien life from the Galaxy. Don't be trying the "but the Tyrannids" rubbish they have trouble dealing with a chapter let alone a Legion. The only commander the Imperium has, that has any grasp of this style of warfare is Bjorn. Abaddon has hundreds of commanders who were present during the greatest battles the Gallaxy had even seen, the Isstvan campaign, the Dropsite Massacres and the Siege of Terra. The imperium just doesn't possess the tactical or strategic know how to counter it.

Abaddon is no frothing Lunatic he knows where Horus went wrong and that was when he let the bonds of brotherhood slip and so lost control of the Legions during the siege of Terra. To paraphrase Talon of Horus the Black Legion is not a Legion to fight the Great Crusade but rather one to fight the Long War. He spent 12 other Black Crusades not merely losing he's been testing, gaining resources, experience and strategic advantage. They were never supposed to beat the Imperium they were the set up for the coup de grace.

The Imperium has only one hope and that is to stop the Warmaster in space but that's not going to happen. Space Travel is dependent on the Warp and let's face it Abaddon has certain friends who can help with that. He could probably whip up a ruinstorm of his own and it'd be fairly easy this time it's not as if there's 250000 Ultramarines to deal with. If he needs to cause mass casualties he's got the Planet Killer and the activated Black Stone fortresses which can just start overloading stars.

In conclusion what we are looking at is Abaddon is going to unleash a War that the Imperium has no way of fighting they lack the resources and talent to counter it. They're going to lose Terra and the Emperor. Of course what actually happens when the Emperor finally dies is open for debate the Imperium ain't going to be able to stop it happening.

Of course if it still had Legions they'd be safe as houses. So it's probably all Guilliman's fault.