40k Balance Meets Mephiston

[Vepr]

Doesn't transfixing gaze work only on IC's? Unless I am mistaken the Swarmlord is not an IC also you did not figure in the swarmlords powers like paroxysm or leach.

[XHound87]

Something that I would also like to bring up, in particular about the swarmlord (or anyone with a psychic hood too, it would seem) and that you failed to notice in the rules it seems: the use of your force weapon constitutes a psychic test, as per the Force Weapons entry on page 50 of the BRB. Specifically with the wording of Shadow in the Warp (pg. 33 of the Tyranid codex) that you would have to roll 3d6 for all of your psychic tests to actually use the force weapon's ability, something that would raise the chance of failure for the ability far greater than what you have indicated. I do not have the C:SM with me to check the language of psychic hoods, but I assume that it could negate the force weapon as it is clearly a psychic check/ability.

[DarkLink]

Something that I would also like to bring up, in particular about the swarmlord (or anyone with a psychic hood too, it would seem) and that you failed to notice in the rules it seems: the use of your force weapon constitutes a psychic test, as per the Force Weapons entry on page 50 of the BRB. Specifically with the wording of Shadow in the Warp (pg. 33 of the Tyranid codex) that you would have to roll 3d6 for all of your psychic tests to actually use the force weapon's ability, something that would raise the chance of failure for the ability far greater than what you have indicated. I do not have the C:SM with me to check the language of psychic hoods, but I assume that it could negate the force weapon as it is clearly a psychic check/ability.

Psychic hoods do indeed stop psychic powers. He also pointed out in his list of assumptions that he would neglect standard psychic tests, as there is only an 8.3% chance of failure, and a 5.6% chance of suffering Perils.

However, after actually seeing those numbers, I think he should go back and recalculate to include the psychic test. Simply by using his powers, Mephiston is at risk of .056 wounds per power per turn, and has a small but not negligable chance of not benefiting from a power.

Taking into account the potential for failing a test does make it much more complicated, but adding in the risk of suffering Perils is actually very easy, so he should do at least that.

[DarkLink]

On a side note, I crunched the numbers for Mephiston vs a Grey Knight Grand Master with a retinue of 4 Terminators.

If Mephiston charges:
Mephiston will have a roughly 75% chance of being force weaponed by the GKGM. If the GKGM fails to do this, then Mephiston will kill them all on the third round of combat, and be left with about 2.2 wounds left.

If the Grey Knights charge:
Everything actually works out almost exactly the same. However if Mephiston manages to win, he will have been reduced to just .72 wounds.


I will also point out that in some cases, the assumption that Mephiston will get the charge may be a poor one. He can easily get the assault against, say, the Nightbringer, but a smart 'nidz player could easily "hide" the Swarmlord in the midst of a horde of guants, preventing Mephiston from assaulting. Space Marines could hide inside Land Raiders as well, in which case it would be a game of cat and mouse between Mephiston and the Land Raider.

[Tynskel]

Psychic hoods do indeed stop psychic powers. He also pointed out in his list of assumptions that he would neglect standard psychic tests, as there is only an 8.3% chance of failure, and a 5.6% chance of suffering Perils.

However, after actually seeing those numbers, I think he should go back and recalculate to include the psychic test. Simply by using his powers, Mephiston is at risk of .056 wounds per power per turn, and has a small but not negligable chance of not benefiting from a power.

Taking into account the potential for failing a test does make it much more complicated, but adding in the risk of suffering Perils is actually very easy, so he should do at least that.

Here's another thing: 8% failure doesn't sound bad-- but that's one power-- now try factoring in that he's casting multiple powers a turn--- If you need all 3 powers to cast in one turn: that's a 1/4 chance of failure--

Assumption-- cast 3 powers a turn, every turn (no psychic hoods, ect):
in a 6 turn game, that's ~12 turns of casting 3 powers-- that's ~3 times that Mephiston will not get all powers off (~ 1-2 times perils of the warp).

[XHound87]

Psychic hoods do indeed stop psychic powers. He also pointed out in his list of assumptions that he would neglect standard psychic tests, as there is only an 8.3% chance of failure, and a 5.6% chance of suffering Perils.

However, after actually seeing those numbers, I think he should go back and recalculate to include the psychic test. Simply by using his powers, Mephiston is at risk of .056 wounds per power per turn, and has a small but not negligable chance of not benefiting from a power.

Taking into account the potential for failing a test does make it much more complicated, but adding in the risk of suffering Perils is actually very easy, so he should do at least that.

It does indeed make it more complicated. But my point was that he's doing things kinda wonky for the Swarmlord. Namely that he's including Tranfixing gaze (which as Vepr pointed out, doesn't work), as well as Sanguine Sword, something that he mentioned not using against the Trygon Prime because of SITW. Using either the SS or the force weapon means that he'll fail either about 50% of the time (again, which he mentioned against the TP). Also noted is that under the effects of SITW, Meph will suffer Perils 1/6 for each psychic test. Those odds seem quite a bit more dangerous when you do that twice each turn. Assuming that the Swarmlord lives through all that, which is possible more than not, he can very much put Meph's lights out. Just my two cents.

[Judge]

Darklink, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers (and a list of assumptions) for the Grey Knight battle. Do Grey Knights nullify psychic powers completely (no roll)? Assuming they do, does the GKGC count as an Independent Character? Assuming he's a standard T4 Marine leader with 3 wounds, Mephiston would kill him without any psychic powers or Transfixing Gaze in the first or second round by rights of straight strength and a power weapon by assigning his hits in base to base. If they don't completely nullify psychic powers, he's got two shots at SS if he jump charges, and three if he doesn't. He'd thereafter instant kill through raw strength unless GKGCs are immune somehow. Sorry - don't mean to jump on you. You're just the only one so far who's posted any realistic numbers.

Tynskel, not all three psychic powers are called for every turn. I added a sample battle versus Necrons that illustrates the point.

There's an awful lot of nitpicking without an awful lot of simulation to back it up. This, from past experience, I've found to be indicative of incomplete understanding of the subject matter. Anyone who sites one or two complaints and continues to dismiss the analysis out of hand, this applies to you. So far, only one person has "crunched his own numbers."

- Psychic tests were factored in against the Swarmlord, as I thought the numbers made evident - 50% chance of failure with a 1/6 chance of Perils in the Warp. I no longer have the codexes at hand, but factoring out Transfixing Gaze and factoring in Unleash Rage would have a significant impact, yes. Someone feel free to rerun the numbers?
- Against Abaddon, I used the more recent of two fourth edition Chaos codexes. His Chaos Undivided Mark gave him a 4+ invlunerable save, and adjustments to statline. Nowhere that I saw was he listed as immune to any sort of instant kill (please correct me if I missed something). Are you using the older (better) 4th edition codex?
- I did not factor in the odds of Peril in the Warp for an entire 6 turn game as that exceeds the purposes of basic illustration in this matter: to whit, Mephiston will have paid for himself (likely several times over) in practically every game he's fielded in before Peril in the Warp becomes an issue.
- Whoever thought they killed Mephiston with a few AP2 shots, your post makes it seem highly probable that you fought an older edition Mephiston, whose stats were absolutely nothing like 5th edition Mephiston's.
- Power weapons would have little meaning in Str 4 hands. If you think adding a powerfist to a 10 man squad will help, by all means do so and run the numbers. Add two. Just make sure that however you run things, Mephiston can't single them out, or they'll always be the first to go.

Generally speaking, I selected melee specialists to oppose Mephiston for purposes of illustration, many of whom would not be his first targets (although, given the case of Nightbringer, why not, eh?). When looking at his competition, though, how many 12" move fleet choices do you see? How many are small enough to hide behind cracks in terrain or normal troops from their own armies? (I've tried hiding Swarmlord behind a Trygon, but gaunts?) How many have a high enough toughness to shrug off Str 4 fire (quite a few) and a 2+ save (not many at all)? By base statline, 5th edition Mephitson is a flying Tyranid Monstrous Creature in 2+ armor with a better initiative who swaps 2d6 pen for Str 10. Why do Carnifexs have low initiative? Why does a Swarmlord have a 3+ armor save, and only get a 4+ invulnerable in melee? Why doesn't it fly? Why do units have vulnerabilities, when they could all turn potentially fatal flaws into boons ala Dragonball Z? What would this guy do to an Imperial Guard or *shudder* Necron army, all by himself? Why am I the only one who's noticed how borked this guy is? At the very least, did the difference between editions sink in? They are not ostensibly compatable.

Here's a game I like to call the Flashlight game (based on a friend's fondness to call Imperial Guard lasguns "flashlights"). How many wounds would 100 Imperial Guardsmen firing lasguns rapid fire do to x creature?

Wraithlord
Feth you Guardsmen.

Swarmlord
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 3+ save.
Dead.

Mephiston
200 shots
100 hits
16.7 wounds
2.8 wounds pass 2+ save.
Still quite alive.

Generic T4 multi-wound Space Marine character in 2+ armour
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
5.6 wounds pass 2+ save.
Super dead, since how many Space Marines have 5 wounds (keeping in mind that Mephiston is a Tyranid)?

Tyranid Warriors
200 shots
100 hits
33.3 wounds
16.7 wounds pass 4+ save.
5 and a half dead Warriors.

Tyranid Gaunts
200 shots
100 hits
50 wounds
50 dead Gaunts.

Simply put, my analysis is an intelligent, thoughtful approach to illustrating a concept that should be apparent at little more than a glance, and the best (only) way to beat it is at its own game. Please crunch your own numbers, and post your own results. So far, a few individual battles have been argued with specifics, but the overall conclusions remain unassailed.

[UltramarineFan]

Wow that's boring, btw Abadonn is immune to Instant Death. Mark of Chaos makes him immune as well as giving the bonuses of all the marks.

[Judge]

Wow that's boring, btw Abadonn is immune to Instant Death. Mark of Chaos makes him immune as well as giving the bonuses of all the marks.

Never underestimate a GED.

[Fellend]

I'm interested in 5 LC terminators with Accept any challenge vs him =)