40k Balance Meets Mephiston

[Ferrett]

Dear Judge. I run a Anti-BA(Tank version) ork list. Practically against me (And yes we do play 5th ed, my local BA player is quite loving Blood Talons, which I am not), Mephiston seems to cringe at the oddest of attacks.
All of the following are AP 2 attacks. All of which in a combined method were used to kill him regularly. It must be noted that my technique involves attacking him with fire from the 2 nearest most lethal units per turn.

Shokk attack gun - killing ratio across 3 games - 2 wounds (11 and 10 respectively)
Zzapp guns - 3 wounds from 3 games
Snazzguns - 2 wounds
Perils (That 'unlikely roll') - 3 wounds.

Remaining wounds made to him that weren't AP2.
Rokkit to face - one wound
Unending shoota fire - one wound.
Shoota boy CC attacks - one wound

friend has reminded me it was 5 perils from 3 games. Unlucky him heh.

Ideally I should remember the last 2 wounds to make a point, unfortunately I do not.
The point to counter though is that Meph can be killed reliably - IF you treat him just like any tank (vehicle not high wound model). I understand that current edition that means melta... and I pity the races that rely on this tactic. But a nice lot of hard hitting fire will kill him.

Now.... can anyone help me with how to kill Honour guard, I'd be chuffed.

[Gooball]

You should try the sanguinor . . we had a hero bash with him one on one against everyone and the only person capable of taking him down was abbadon (even though he died at the same time!) And yarrick did pose a bit of a problem.. he just wouldn't die :3

[Judge]

Ferrett: As you're an Ork player, I like you already.

I haven't gone too thoroughly through the Ork codex in awhile, but as I recall, their higher strength weapons were frequently balanced with poor accuracy. The helicopters get rerolls, but how many others? With BS 2, absent rerolls, only 1/3 shots will hit, and 1s never wound, meaning it'll take ~18 shots from AP2 or AP1 weapons to kill this guy. Over the course of a game, sure, I could see that as feasible, but within the first round or two? Moreover, before he gets into your squads with his ridonculous assault range? What are you going to shoot the rest of his tanks with? You know they're all fast because of the color!

Seeing him as a vehicle is fair in a sense, though. If you hit a AP 12 front armor Dreadnaught with a Str 9 weapon, you have a 1/2 chance to Penetrate, 1/3 chance to destroy, with a whole lot of likely lesser effects scattered in the damage table to keep it preoccupied in the meantime. With Mephiston, there are no lesser effects - until that last wound's gone, he's at full power. More to the point, though, while Furiosa Dreads can now also fly (with costly upgrades), they're not so tiny that you can hide them behind Assault Squads / many types of terrain, and they only dish out half as many Str 10 wounds per combat round.

I'm guessing your friend sticks him out in the open, bold as brass and daring you to shoot him. You should definitely forget to suggest that he not do that anymore.

[Xas]

a funny way to kill mephy:

take deathleaper to reduce his leadership to 9-7 and drop the doom of malanthai next to him.


depending on your roll with the deathleaper's lds reduction all he has to do is totall 14 (as low as 12 can be enough) with 3d6 and he is toast. if the oponent does not run away from the doom youa ctually get a 2nd chance in his shooting phase as well!



on the OP itself I think he showed that mephiston is worth his points. If I pay that many points for a combat monster that has no other abilities bot to kill he pretty much HAS to be a monster.

mephiston is designed to kill expensive stuff and that includes other combat monster chars. he pretty much is in the same boath as abbadon and if you include his immunity to ID the battle should be pretty fair (my money is on abby since all he needs is to survive and then score 5 hits as rerolling wounds with s8 and no invul on mephis part is quite easy).

there are some squads that will endanger him (examples: 30 hormagaunts with toxin sacs, 20 genestealers) but the simple reason why the model itself is not OP is that he still has weaknesses and that is beeing a single non IC modell and not haveing an invul save. there are ways to hit him with shooting then he is going down easily.

often enough my tanka-fexes (t7 5wound 2+ save, last dex) have been one-shot by a sternguard droppod with 5+ combi-plasma guns, outflanking choosen, teleporting chaos-terminators and what not. prolly the easiest solution to mephiston are 10 firedragons in a serpent. you ahve one of the most survivable transports that is a fast skimmer and 10 bs4 s8 ap1 shots to nail him.

finally a good general never "plays fair". if you pit same points against each other you are doing it wrong. and if you take 1000 points of shooting or melee even mephi will go down without causeing his points in damage.

[Judge]

You don't post any evidence to back your claims, Xas. Funny you should mention the 1,000 points bit, though....

Mephiston vs. 1,000 point Necron Army

So this section I've added because, as a Necron player since 2nd edition who misses self-destructing scarabs, but loves the 3rd edition codex, I've got something of a vested interest until 2011 (or whenever) my new Necron Codex comes out, when Nightbringer will surely, by the new edition's standards, become a T10 W8 Eternal Warrior. The army list below will include a full Necron army I might typically field. Noteworthy in their absence will be Pariahs, who you'd think would do well against this guy (but wouldn't - run the simulation yourself!) for the simple reason that, like many Necron players, I haven't bought any of the models. Also absent will be Heavy Destroyers, which would do very well against Mephiston (provided no terrain - not at all certain), but which I don't normally field because of relative lack of utility in larger games to Monoliths, and relative danger of Phase Out in smaller to mid-sized games. Honestly, who designs their whole army around killing one (non-titan) model?

360 points - Nightbringer
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
180 points - Mandatory 10 man Warrior Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad
140 points - 5 man Immortal Squad


Turn 1, Round 1 - Mephiston walks/runs into range.

Turn 1, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (.37 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (1.11 total)

Nightbringer Fires.
1 shot (*2/3)
.66 hits (*5/6)
.56 wounds taken (1.67 total)

Turn 2, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 1 total), runs, fleet assaults Nightbringer.
*See above for results (2 psychic uses, 3 total).

Turn 2, Round 2

Warriors Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/6)
2.2 wounds (/6)
.37 wounds taken (2.04 total)

Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (2.78 total)

Turn 3, Round 1

Mephiston runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 5 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.86 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 3, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 7 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (reroll 1.67 misses *2/3)
4.45 hits total (*5/6)
3.71 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Warrior strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken. (2.87 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 3.71 wounds (/3) = 1.24 knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down.

Turn 4, Round 1

Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 8 total), runs, fleet assaults Warrior Group 2.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 10 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
6 Necron Warriors strike.
6 attacks (/2)
3 hits (/6)
.5 wounds (/6)
.08 wounds taken. (2.95 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.

Turn 4, Round 2

Squads move away. .74 Warriors stand back up. Melee begins.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 12 total).
Pyschic power Unleash Rage fails!
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*5/6)
2.78 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
2 Necron Warriors strike.
2 attacks (/2)
1 hit (/6)
.17 wounds (/6)
.03 wounds taken. (2.98 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 2.78 wounds (/3) = .93 knocked down.

Turn 5, Round 1
Mephiston uses no psychic powers.
Mephiston gains the initiative.
5 attacks (*2/3)
3.33 hits (*2/3)
2.78 wounds. Remaining warriors are knocked down.
No Warriors remain nearby. Final Warrior stays down. Mephiston makes Sweeping Advance towards nearest Immortal Squad.

Turn 5, Round 2
Immortal Squads move to max range.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (3.72 total)

Turn 6, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 13 total), runs.

Turn 6, Round 2
Immortal Squads move, one away, one towards.
Immortals Fire.
20 shots (*2/3)
13.3 hits (/3)
4.44 wounds (/6)
.74 wounds taken (4.46 total)

Turn 7, Round 1
Mephiston makes jump move (1 psychic use, 14 total), runs, fleet assaults Immortal Group 1.
Mephiston uses Sanguine Sword and Unleash Rage. (2 psychic uses, 16 total).
Mephiston gains the initiative.
6 attacks (*2/3)
4 hits (reroll 2 misses *2/3)
5.33 hits total (*5/6)
4.44 wounds. Double strength inflicts Instant Death, negating We'll Be Back.
1 Necron Immortal strikes.
1 attack (/2)
.5 hits (/6)
.08 wounds (/6)
.01 wounds taken (4.47 total)
Mephiston wins the combat round. Necrons pass leadership (or run and are caught), and take 4.44 wounds (/3) = 1.48 knocked down.
No Immortals remain nearby. Final Immortal stays down.

Necrons Phase Out.

Mephiston wins. Wounds remaining: .53/5

Now, I'm not quite certain what I expected to happen when I set this scenario up (something very like this, probably), but this is horse poo. Whoever's about to say it, you're right - with 16 psychic powers used, there are excellent odds of a Perils of the Warp attack coming up. The odds of double 1s are 1/36, and the odds of double 6s are 1/36, making the odds of either 1/18 with each roll. The odds aren't quite 50%, though, so it didn't occur in this simulation. Between it and the just over 50% odds of a wound being left, there's an excellent case for Mephiston going down towards the end. That being said, I did presume that our Necron player would be skilled/fortunate enough to get two final rounds of shooting in with the Immortals instead of one, thinking it likely that a competent player would get them the Hell out of assault range. There were no Heavy Destroyers, as I typically don't field any in games that size, but neither was there any terrain. Also, had Heavy Destroyers been fielded instead of Immortals, then Phase Out would've occured the start of the Necron turn after the 19th Warrior went down instead of the third Immortal.

[DarkLink]

Darklink, I'd be interested in seeing the numbers (and a list of assumptions) for the Grey Knight battle. Do Grey Knights nullify psychic powers completely (no roll)? Assuming they do, does the GKGC count as an Independent Character? Assuming he's a standard T4 Marine leader with 3 wounds, Mephiston would kill him without any psychic powers or Transfixing Gaze in the first or second round by rights of straight strength and a power weapon by assigning his hits in base to base. If they don't completely nullify psychic powers, he's got two shots at SS if he jump charges, and three if he doesn't. He'd thereafter instant kill through raw strength unless GKGCs are immune somehow. Sorry - don't mean to jump on you. You're just the only one so far who's posted any realistic numbers.

The GKGM uses the old retinue rules as I pointed out, so he's protected from Transfixing gaze and partially from wound allocation as well.

Additionally, I assumed the GKGM had a psychic hood, meaning he blocks 42% of mephiston's powers. Plus, all Grey Knights have built in psychic hoods against powers targeting them, so even without the hood the GKGM would have some protection from being force weaponed.

Also, the GKGM's force weapon uses the old rules, ignoring eternal warrior.


And I did the calculations on my graphing calculator for the most part, and really only wrote down the results.

Anyways, I agree with xas. You're making a lot of little assumptions, all of which are completely in Mephiston's favor. Those add up. In real game, though, things often don't go as planned, which can make Mephiston a whole lot less scary.

[Zijan]

Judge --

You really should re-run the numbers for Abaddon. I did (posted below) for 4th and 3rd ed Abaddon, but I'm not a statistician, so I may have made errors. Assumptions are listed, as well as extrapolated from your first post. Both versions of Abaddon are Immune to Instant Death, one from Mark of Chaos Ascendant, the other from Daemonic Rune.

Mephiston vs. Abaddon the Despoiler (4th ed)

Assumptions:
Mephiston gets Transvixing Gaze/Unleash Rage, Sanguine Sword
Abaddon never rolls a 1 for his Daemon weapon

Round 1

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.5 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.25 wounds. 2.75 wounds left

Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks. 3.75 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 3.125 wounds. With re-roll, 3.646 wounds.
Mephiston saves. 1.823 wounds. 3.177 wounds left

Round 2

Mephiston strikes. 3 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.5 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.25 wounds. (1.5 wounds left)

Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks. 3.75 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 3.125 wounds. With re-roll, 3.646 wounds.
Mephiston saves. 1.823 wounds. 1.354 wounds left.

Round 3

Mephiston strikes. 3 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.5 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.25 wounds. (0.25 wounds left)

Abaddon strikes. 7.5 attacks. 3.75 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 3.125 wounds. With re-roll, 3.646 wounds.
Mephiston saves. 1.823 wounds.

Abaddon wins (0.25 wounds left)

Cost Percentage: 91%

Mephiston vs. Abaddon the Despoiler (3rd ed)

Assumptions:
Mephiston gets Transvixing Gaze/Unleash Rage, Sanguine Sword

Round 1

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.56 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.96 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.48 wounds. 1.52 wounds left

Abaddon strikes. 5 attacks. 2.5 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 0.764 wounds (lightning claw)
Mephiston saves. 0.382 wounds. 4.618 wounds left

Drach’nyen strikes. 0.5 hits
Mephiston saves. 0.25 chance of being killed outright (not Instant Death)

Round 2

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.56 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.96 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.48 wounds. 0.04 wounds left

Abaddon strikes. 5 attacks. 2.5 hits.
Abaddon wounds. 0.764 wounds (lightning claw)
Mephiston saves. 0.382 wounds. 4.236 wounds left

Drach’nyen strikes. 0.5 hits
Mephiston saves. 0.25 chance of being killed outright (not Instant Death)

Round 3

Mephiston gains the initiative.
Mephiston strikes. 3.56 hits.
Mephiston wounds. 2.96 wounds.
Abaddon saves. 1.48 wounds. Dead

Mephiston wins (50% of the time due to Drach'nyen)

Cost Percentage: 98%

[Judge]

Zijan, thanks for running those. It looks like you did just fine. No fancy statistics here - standard deviations can play a big role in extensive analysis, but all we're doing here is establishing a basic trend. I'm betting somewhere at GW they have some basic S v T tables to help establish reasonable statlines. That, or they're still feeding off of 3rd edition's baseline (which is a pity, since the math's not that hard to replicate). Please note that I ended every simulation when a model had <.5 wounds remaining, as this indicates a greater than 50% probability of death. As such, Mephiston would win both of your listed scenarios quite handily, as the first left Abaddon with only .25 wounds. Thanks for running the numbers - I don't currently have the codexes at hand.

Dark, I'm making a lot of assumptions, because small assumptions lead to large conveniences. Many of the assumptions made do not favor Mephiston at all. For example, no one gets the charge in scenarios I ran, even though Meph has a considerably greater assault range. I didn't use Unleash Rage unless otherwise listed. In the case of the Trygon and Logan Grimnar, I didn't even use Sanguine Sword (not that it matters against Logan). 1/12 chance of psychic failure is a non-issue with Sanguine Sword if Unleash Rage is not used, as Meph can always try it again if it fails the first time - 1/12 * 1/12 = 1/144 odds of failure twice in a row. If you feel 1/12 odds of failure for instant death from his rune weapon have a significant impact, feel free to illustrate your point, as claiming I'm doing something wrong is sheer and utter nonsense absent direct evidence, which anyone with a rulebook and codexes is free to provide just as I've done (or in more detail, as you prefer).

[Malkov]

I want to say pit him against Skulltaker with some Bloodletters/crushers, but Fisto could just run away

[DarkLink]

If you feel 1/12 odds of failure for instant death from his rune weapon have a significant impact, feel free to illustrate your point, as claiming I'm doing something wrong is sheer and utter nonsense absent direct evidence, which anyone with a rulebook and codexes is free to provide just as I've done (or in more detail, as you prefer).

You're being rather confrontational about this. In fact, you've kinda jumped on anyone who's said something that could be construed to be critical of your analysis. Chill out.

And for the record, I didn't say you were wrong. I said that a few of the assumptions you made maybe shouldn't have been. The assumptions will affect the outcome of the result, and are most definitely not "sheer and utter nonsense". The question is, is the increased accuracy worth the extra effort. If you don't feel so, that's fine. No need to be confrontational if I think some of them might have been worth including.

Absent Psychic Interference, Psychic Tests Pass
(1/12 chances to fail do add up, but no single battle listed here will last long enough for that to be likely).

It's easy to add the odds of him suffering a wound due to Perils, at the least. Just add 0.056 to the number of wounds Mephiston suffers for each power he uses each turn. And the odds of failing a test are 8.3%. But, yeah, some battles it won't have a significant effect unless there is some psychic nullification present. However, in very close battles it may be enough to give Mephiston's opponent the edge.

No Charge
(Mephiston is more likely to be the charger due to size, fleet and jump abilities).

Ah, I misread this. Though you said Mephiston would always get the charge.

No Shooting
(Given a 17"-24" potential assault range and tiny model size [facilitating easy hiding], Mephiston should be able to avoid getting shot by hiding behind terrain / allied squads to directly block LoS. A more likely scenario that Mephiston will get to shoot his pistol before assaulting will also be discounted, but should be remembered, as per the No Charge and Psychic Tests Pass assumptions).

Here's the biggest problem, and the toughest. There's no way to calculate the odds of Mephiston taking wounds from shooting before the combat starts. However, it does completely ignore what is by far the easiest way to kill Mephiston.

I don't expect to be able to calculate the odds of Mephiston getting shot, but it does mean that this analysis will make him seem scarier than he is.

No Transfixing Gaze Unless It Significantly Effects The Outcome
(Transfixing Gaze will be used the first match to show why. It can strongly impact fighting, but is simply unecessary in most of the cases listed).

BTW, that's affect, not effect

Mephiston Will Not Use Unleash Rage
(The Sanguine Sword psychic ability may be used at the start of either player's assault phase to effect close combat attacks made that round, thus additional psychic uses per round will be reserved. Practically speaking, Unleash Rage would become available in the second turn for the third round of combat, but will not be used here unless otherwise noted for reasons soon to be apparent).

I can't blame you for sacrificing accuracy in favor of making assumptions. And I was wrong about them all being in Mephiston's favor. But it would have been sufficient to actually refute me, instead of dismissing my comments as "sheer and utter nonsense absent direct evidence". You might want to read up on this sticky; [URL="http://www.lounge.belloflostsouls.net/showthread.php?t=5290"]Mind your manners (global warning)[/URL]