Misjudging the Market: AOS VS Star Wars

[Arkhan Land]

no one knows the terms of those deals but FFG and Disney and no one can say how long they'll last.

I'm sure the new star wars films will be great, well marketed successes but that's out of FFGs hands, they're reliant on another company for their success. If Disney got a better deal from someone else, they'd leave.

I would assume and hope for their sake that perhaps they have some sort of longer term agreement, if they were smart maybe through the next three episodes and in a situation where you are tied to a company like that im sure you'de have plans to try and step-it up if need be or know that youde make a profit in having to force your licensor to buy back its rights for the duration of whatever contract (assuming they were going to make enough money to do something that drastic)

You said it yourself. Their into the business of selling miniatures. Doesn't seem to stop them from shoving out games ALL the time, but yeah I'll agree with you because it doesn't really matter. Even if all they did and all their focus was on mini's only there is more than enough incentive to buy them up. FFG currently has two of the best selling minatures games around and is gaining ground fast. In the span of a few year's their doing what GW took their entire company's existence to do. Any executive not worried wouldn't be on my payroll.

in addition to miniatures GW has made an entire print publication department that is making them a fine amount of money in physical and totally non-physical sales through their books and ebooks. FFG can never ever do this, do you know why? because the rights to do so are owned by other companies, when FFGs mini market becomes saturated or they have badly selling release they have no other corner to go into. It kind of doesnt matter if they make a better or more popular mini-game in the end the only thing thats allowed companies to survive is diversifying through merchandising and licensing. Star wars has sold as a franchise under 8 Billion in ticket sales and home video/rental/etc. BUT they have made TWENTY BILLION DOLLARS selling EVERYTHING ELSE.

GW has survived periods when it has lost its smaller games and had flimsy releases in all its core games (Now included), if the same happened to FFG or PP, a company like them wouldnt have a leg to stand on.

[grimmas]

Just a little context.

FFG last year £25M globally

GW £120M globally

Things drop off quite a lot after number one.

It's a bit like the U.S. Navy in that respect.

X-Wing is a welcome addition to Wargaming but it has a long way to go.

Also by the logic being touted surely one could replace AoS or GW with any other game or company and say they are finished because, Star Wars.

[Path Walker]

According to the logic in the OP, any product that aims at the 9-14 year old demographic is doomed to fail in the next decade because Star Wars.

[Caitsidhe]

According to the logic in the OP, any product that aims at the 9-14 year old demographic is doomed to fail in the next decade because Star Wars.

No, I was very specific. Games Workshop is a company with a very limited product line, i.e. it has 40K, 30K if that can truly be considered its own branch, and Age of Sigmar. Ostensibly (or so they claim) AOS is designed to take aim at the youth market. It does so at the expense of a fair percentage of its older consumers. I feel it is a poor choice for Games Workshop to aim one of its few branches at a market in which it cannot hope to compete. I think they would be well served by finding a way to reach out to their older consumers, create a better public relations situations with their market (they have the worst), and lock down that portion of their base which will be most loyal. Games Workshop has priced itself as a luxury item. Luxury items always suffer when a popular (and less expensive) alternative hits the scene.

[Mr Mystery]

Can you define and cite said definition of 'fair percentage' please?

[Caitsidhe]

Can you define and cite said definition of 'fair percentage' please?

Unfortunately I can't. It it too soon, although I expect the next report will demonstrate it with another decline in overall sales. I can say exactly who I mean however. It would be all Fantasy players who want more complexity in their game, i.e. a game not simplified to the extreme to make it easier for the very young. I would also be talking about all those people that Pathwalker has conveniently commented on above in one of his gems, i.e. the people that he says Games Workshop is restructuring. If we were to take his word for it, anyone outside the first eighteen months. That is a rather astounding number of us don't you think?

[Path Walker]

No, I was very specific. Games Workshop is a company with a very limited product line, i.e. it has 40K, 30K if that can truly be considered its own branch, and Age of Sigmar. Ostensibly (or so they claim) AOS is designed to take aim at the youth market. It does so at the expense of a fair percentage of its older consumers. I feel it is a poor choice for Games Workshop to aim one of its few branches at a market in which it cannot hope to compete. I think they would be well served by finding a way to reach out to their older consumers, create a better public relations situations with their market (they have the worst), and lock down that portion of their base which will be most loyal. Games Workshop has priced itself as a luxury item. Luxury items always suffer when a popular (and less expensive) alternative hits the scene.

Also: Please cite sources for: " AOS is designed to take aim at the youth market", if you have none, explain how you think this wargame is any more aimed at children than any of their other products have been for the last 20 years.

"create a better public relations situations with their market (they have the worst)" - explain how you have decided they have the worst public relations in the market, citing sources or studies.

"lock down that portion of their base which will be most loyal" - explain how you're defining loyalty exactly and how that helps them as a business when they don't spend much money.

Its a kids game, has been for longer than most people here have played, if you started post 1994, then you've always played a game aimed squarely at children. Get over it, adult fans are not more important than children.

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Unfortunately I can't. It it too soon, although I expect the next report will demonstrate it with another decline in overall sales. I can say exactly who I mean however. It would be all Fantasy players who want more complexity in their game, i.e. a game not simplified to the extreme to make it easier for the very young. I would also be talking about all those people that Pathwalker has conveniently commented on above in one of his gems, i.e. the people that he says Games Workshop is restructuring. If we were to take his word for it, anyone outside the first eighteen months. That is a rather astounding number of us don't you think?

This is the most badly written paragraph of grasping nonsense that I've ever read.

[Caitsidhe]

Also: Please cite sources for: " AOS is designed to take aim at the youth market", if you have none, explain how you think this wargame is any more aimed at children than any of their other products have been for the last 20 years.

If you don't know why already, I sure as heck can't explain it to you. I suppose you can't tell the difference between the rules sets.

"create a better public relations situations with their market (they have the worst)" - explain how you have decided they have the worst public relations in the market, citing sources or studies.

Soda just went out my nose again. You are the absolute best thing about BOLS. You should know that you won me ten bucks the other day. Some thought the party was over when you claimed you were setting me on ignore. I just smiled and put ten bucks on your reappearance. You just can't quit me. As with your other statement above, if you need me to quote studies at you to prove that Games Workshop has a public relations problem, there is no way I'm the person to talk to you about it. It would be like me telling some stranger's kid that Father Christmas isn't real.

"lock down that portion of their base which will be most loyal" - explain how you're defining loyalty exactly and how that helps them as a business when they don't spend much money.

Its a kids game, has been for longer than most people here have played, if you started post 1994, then you've always played a game aimed squarely at children. Get over it, adult fans are not more important than children.

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This is kind of funny because by your own logic, I suppose I could quote YOU as a source for your first question. I've stated many times that I suspect there is a huge cultural divide based on which side of the Atlantic you reside. Perhaps England is a land where children outnumber the adults playing Games Workshop products. In the United States, that isn't the case. Adults are 99.9% of the market. If you like it better I am happy to caveat my opinions to that grim fact. If Games Workshop doesn't care about the American market, then more power to them. It suffices to say that AOS is not exactly taking off over here. I am one of the FEW people playing it and I don't even like it.

This is the most badly written paragraph of grasping nonsense that I've ever read.

Psst... Father Christmas isn't real. I'm glad you are back man. Our gatherings just haven't been the same. I am raising my coffee, purchased with my winnings due to your triumphant return, to you. The hits just keep on coming.

[Mr Mystery]

See, I just can't buy into the 'AoS has ruined Warhammer forever more'.

Not because I enjoy AoS for what it is, but because, well, Oldhammer is something of a well worn tradition. Those who played earlier editions of the game will continue to do so.

I dunno about anyone else, but I'm a collecting nightmare. I've got all the books barring Triumph and Treachery (which I always forgot to go and buy), but including Kislev and Lustria - so as far as Oldhammer is concerned, I'm good to go back to 7th Ed if needs be. I kind of suspect I'm not alone in this, and I'd imagine that if not a single player, then most groups would be able to pool resources and wind up with nearly every book.

And given they're not fully available anymore (except some through Apple, electronically) I suspect the morally dubious practice of downloading the books could now be seen as a lot less morally dubious (as you may not be able to get them any other way).

AoS? Well, so far it seems to be doing pretty well. It's not exploded like a Cashladen Hydrogen Bomb, but from the various (uncited) sources I'm aware of, there is interest in the game. For first hand anecdote, my local GW has regular holes in its Warhammer stock for the first time in a long time. The manager was saying against expectation, it's mostly Dark Elves, Empire and Chaos selling, and his Warhammer Average Transaction Value is considerably up.

Though there are of course a number of conclusion we could draw - panic buying from those sticking with the devil they know, seeking to ensure SQUARE BASE GOOD, ROUND BASE BAD forever more. Could be long dormant gamers updating their collections for Warhammer. Could be long dormant gamers updating their collections for AoS. There's a lot of possibilities, and if I'm honest it's like 'little column A, bit of column B' etc.

[Caitsidhe]

See, I just can't buy into the 'AoS has ruined Warhammer forever more'.

For the record, we agree here. I don't like the rules. I think the timing was bad. I think it will have to improve a great deal and gain some kind of balance if it is going to fly. While I can't speak with any authority about what will happen outside the United States, I feel pretty confident about it tanking entirely over here. For better or for worst, the American community is tied together by the LGS and the pick up games and tournaments that happen therein. AOS in its current form explodes that dynamic. While I can appreciate your stated sentiments in other posts that the game is supposed to be more casual and that two rational players should be able to get together and be able to work out what is acceptable and what isn't in their game before playing... that just isn't our tradition over here. We like our rules grounded, well-defined and set so that we can meet another stranger and get down to the business of playing the game. The American consumer isn't going to conform to what Games Workshop thinks the culture "should be" they will simply move on to games where they get what is within their comfort zone. Whether you want to label American consumers as spoiled or entitled or whatever else... it is just how things are over here. We expect the product to cater to us, not the other way around. Anecdotal or not, I am dead serious about people moving on from all sorts of Games Workshop products. Right prior to my most recent move, the LGS where I spent the last ten years among die hard 40K fanatics suffered over sixty percent losses to our player base. What is worse, those loses came from people who were so fanatical and Games Workshop friendly that Pathwalker would have saluted them if they passed on the street. When you start losing those guys, there is a serious problem. Losing me is no big deal. I'm a Philistine. I don't care about the IP. I only care about the game. I'm dime a dozen. Losing the people I'm talking about to other games is the hallmark of a disaster.

Not because I enjoy AoS for what it is, but because, well, Oldhammer is something of a well worn tradition. Those who played earlier editions of the game will continue to do so.

I agree with you here in part. We can always break out our old stuff and play among our close friends, but the community (at least in the U.S.) evaporates. Since most of us played at the LGS, our central spot falls away too because it isn't going to be dedicated to hosting games it no longer sells. As I said before, the United States has an entirely different culture for gaming.

AoS? Well, so far it seems to be doing pretty well. It's not exploded like a Cashladen Hydrogen Bomb, but from the various (uncited) sources I'm aware of, there is interest in the game. For first hand anecdote, my local GW has regular holes in its Warhammer stock for the first time in a long time. The manager was saying against expectation, it's mostly Dark Elves, Empire and Chaos selling, and his Warhammer Average Transaction Value is considerably up.

This is something we will have to attribute to anecdotal experiences and our different locations. Where I am at (and back in my former stomping ground) sales are through the floor. Obviously, we will see things clearer in a very short period of time. And if I am wrong about what is happening in my country, I will be the first to bow before you Mr. Mystery and cut into my crow pie. It suffices to say that I don't see myself having to do that anytime soon.