Tervigon statistics - warning stats heavy thread!!!

[Hades Alpha]

Hi everyone

I was wondering how long can a tervigon spawn termagants on average and how many would be spawned. So I made a computer script which simulate the whole spawning thing. Basically the program roll three dices, checks if there's any double and so on. I made a couple of simulations (more than a million) and here's the result:

On average, a tervigon will spawn for 2.22 turns giving you 23.36 termagants (total).

Now for those who wants more (heavy part):
95% of the time, a tervigon will spawn for 2.22 ± 3.05 turns giving you 23.36 ± 33.65 termagants (total).
or
68.2% of the time, a tervigon will spawn for 2.22 ± 1.55 turns giving you 23.36 ± 16.89 termagants (total).

Provides he survive this far.

That being said, you do what you want with this. I just though it was noteworthy.

'Now you know... and knowing is half the battle'
-famous G.I.joe quote!!!

[fuzzbuket]

Now you know... and knowing is half the battle'
-famous G.I.joe quote!!!
or a TF g1 cheesy advert

I like the your math hammer but the dice are weird (i play better spacehulk with painted fig's and if the stealers are unpainted they win!

[Mobious]

Good looks! I have been meaning to do the numbers, but you seem to have it done nicely.

[Dark_Templar]

Now you know... and knowing is half the battle'
-famous G.I.joe quote!!!
or a TF g1 cheesy advert

I like the your math hammer but the dice are weird (i play better spacehulk with painted fig's and if the stealers are unpainted they win!

It's a stealth thing. Less friction, more light absorbing. The Marines are dead before they have a chance to power up their rocket pants (that's a wargear option right?)

Anyways, this thread is handy, as I have been wondering whether it was worth taking a Tervi considering the possibility of rolling a double on the first roll and having him sit there looking ugly the rest of the time.

[Darkwynn]

great, you pointed out the bell curve with it

[Tynskel]

That is a FAT SD. You should calculate out to 95% (two Standard Deviations for those that don't know statistics).

Nice that you ran a million iterations... I guess you took into account for everyone who uses the tervigon, not just yourself!


By the way, some of your math(s) are slightly wrong. There are no negative turns, and there are no negative termagants! However, it would be funny to setup models on the board, then remove some before the game started!

[Fizyx]

I find it surprising that off-center probability curve has a 2-sigma exactly twice 1-sigma. Have you plotted a curve?

[Fizyx]

Here, I just whipped this up real fast. As much as I hate MatLab, it is easy to use. This is why I HATE statistical means for probability distributions. Even though the statistical average is 23-ish, the fact is you are more likely to get less than that. The reason the average is so high is because of the fact that if you DO pull off three or four rolls you will roll significantly higher (1.5 - 2.0 times two rolls, obviously) Notice the peak of the probability curve is MUCH lower than 23, actually almost half that! This does nothing for the fact that even with 100k iterations, the distribution curve is hellza flat.

Also, notice my curve goes out to 100? That means it is including the small chances of 7+ successful non-double rolls, skewing the average far to the right.

In any case, I'll be bringing the Tervigon for it's capability to capture objectives, not for potentially bringing out 20+ Termagants.

[Hades Alpha]

By the way, some of your math(s) are slightly wrong. There are no negative turns, and there are no negative termagants! However, it would be funny to setup models on the board, then remove some before the game started!

Yeah I know. That's the funny part of the math. Like the termagant would go back to their mother!!!

@ Fizyx
I'll get back to you with this.

Thanks everyone for your nice comments. Hope it helps you.

[Tynskel]

Fizyx looks more correct to me. I just knew that the tervigon wasn't THAT good. This makes much more sense.

I haven't used Matlab yet- I have used Interactive Data Language (IDL) in the past.